|Prediction Beloki or Tyler wins Tour before Jan wins again.||Canidraftyou|
Aug 2, 2003 3:54 PM
|We all know Lance wins 6 right and then he retires ontop. After the Lance era, its Tyler or Beloki. One more prediction hang on. Jan gets bad advice and changes up his style and will never be the same rider. I'll go out on a limb and say, Jan takes a shot at bringing up his rpms (spinning would be an over statement). However I do think he needs to put out maybe 5 to 10 more rpms during the climbing stages.
How is that for some b@lls.
|did you forget to talke your medication again?||c40-hp|
Aug 2, 2003 7:33 PM
|and put away the taro cards.
|No cards here, simply a prediction.||Canidraftyou|
Aug 2, 2003 10:50 PM
|Makes the tour just a little more exciting for the next few years. If Beloki is able to start training late fall, he'll focus on the tour only, he'll be very strong! Tyler is getting better and better. Jan, well Jan is the second best cyclist today, to much let down for him to hang on and keep the number two spot. Tyler and Beloki well be more hungry than Jan.
It's my prediction. ANYWAY, SINCE EVERYONE ELSE IS SO FREE ABOUT MAKING CORRECTIONS, I'LL MAKE ONE, I THINK IT'S "TAROT CARDS."
|I haven't read any reports, but ...||Live Steam|
Aug 3, 2003 11:40 AM
|we all hope Beloki is able to race at a high level again. Wasn't his break fairly serious? Didn't it involve the joint like Levi's did?
You may have a shot with Tyler, but even if Beloki is able to fully recover, train, etc, I don't think he has what it takes to beat LA. I don't think he will ever be able to TT well enough to hold a lead. Also didn't he say, before his crash, that he would re-evaluate his participation in future tours if he didn't win this year?
|Never said Beloki would beat Lance.||Canidraftyou|
Aug 3, 2003 12:47 PM
|What I was trying to say, is once Lance wins 6 and he think he will. Tyler or Beloki will be the next Tour winner. I'm saying Jan may never win another, only a prediction!
Beloki was good enough to take second last year.
Oh...I thought Super Mario retired last year. We've gotta remember, at that level of cycling. Its hard to put the bike down. Marco is still trying, why I dont know. Lance has a chance to be better than Eddie. Should Lance win next year and retire after. That would make him a great champion, retiring at the top of his game. Unlike a lot of athletes in many sports. The only one that comes to mind recent is John Elway, he could run for a Gov. office in Denver and be a sure win (right or wrong).
If by some chance Beloki is unable to come back, because of the injury. Then your call is as good as mine...lol. One more thing. I dont think Jan will ever be on a top notch team as good or better than Telecom. I dont think Jan will get a chance to ride for CSC, Postal or Once. Jan is a risk!
|You know, I should really read the subject line ...||Live Steam|
Aug 3, 2003 2:34 PM
|before posting :O) Sorry about that. I may agree with you on Tyler's chances, but I still think Beloki does not TT well enough to win the Tour where a good finish in the individual TT is a must. I haven't checked, but I would be willing to bet that most of the winners of the Tour have finished in the top three positions in the ITT in their persuit of the yellow jersey.
I am not sure about Jan. I think he may have grown up some. He may be even stronger next year and I believe LA knows it. Jan is no more of a risk than most of the high priced prima donnas. I think CSC would certainly reconsider Jan, should Tyler bolt. They could surround him with the talent he needs and the DS that has the smarts to win.
|Beloki still being in question. IF he recovers by fall.||Canidraftyou|
Aug 3, 2003 10:36 PM
|You gotta think about all the others that have retired or thought about it. Im sure its hard to let go at that level.
Time well tell.
|Jan is a risk, so is Kobe, Tyson and ...||spyderman|
Aug 4, 2003 1:43 PM
|every other athlete that takes the field. Do I respect them for their misdeeds, certainly not. Do I want to win, always!
If I had my choice, and Lance wasn't available, I'd go with Ullrich over EVERYONE else.
|You looking for a prediction?||Crash|
Aug 3, 2003 9:05 PM
|Prediction: Jan , Beloki and Vino (in that order) on the podium. Tyler in his last strong year is wearing the KOM jersey (ala JAJA). Lance abandons the Tour because his team is no longer head and shoulders stronger than every other team in the Peleton and he finally runs out of excuses. Down by 5 minutes and fooling no one his last excuse is that he could win, but doesn't want to hurt the feelings of the other members of the 5 win club.
If Jan and Lance switched teams back in January, Jan wins this Tour by 3-4 minutes. Before you get ready to flame me think about this. Final time difference, 61 seconds. Take away 43 seconds for the difference in the team time trial, 18 seconds. And this is with Jan crashing out on the final ITT (geez, did Lance wait for him, or Beloki for that matter?) Now think that Lance had the strongest team carrying him through the first two weeks of the Tour while Jan basically rode by himself.
|You're still crying about the Beloki crash? LET IT GO!!!||Canidraftyou|
Aug 3, 2003 10:32 PM
|We have talked that out over and over. The momentum carried Lance half across the field!!! It was left into the field or keep his line and get mixed up in it. He wasnt able to take it right, it was a right turn and at that speed, he himself would of lost it.
What a baby,
"geez, did Lance wait for him, or Beloki for that matter"
Aug 4, 2003 6:09 AM
|So I say that Lance is not going to win his 6th, and not even be on the Podium, and THAT'S the line you object to? I even say that if Jan and Lance had switched teams Jan would be in yellow THIS year and you don't comment on that either. Interesting...|
|Tough to comments on fantasy scenerios.||Spoiler|
Aug 4, 2003 6:47 AM
|There are no set rules for predicting what may happen. But it helps if you start with reality. How can you base a prediction on conditions that never existed and certainly will never exist? Jan and Lance didn't switch teams. Jan and Lance won't switch teams. So your predictions are in the toilet before you even start.
Lance will have another great team. Jan doesn't even know what team he'll be on. Just like Chris Carmichael is seen as a leech sucking off of Lance's success, Rudy Pevenage will shop Jan around to the highest bidder, injecting more instability into his career. Jan won't have a chance to get "established" on a team. Teammates will be hastily slapped together before the Tour, they'll start talking trash about how they'll destroy USPS, and the whole circle starts over again.
For example, there's a chance Telekom's Walter Godefroot will turn his back on Vino and Botero, and put his eggs on Jan's basket again. This puts Jan in the same situation that got him in trouble before. Jan might have bad personal feelings towards Telecom, but if Rudy insists, he'll follow the money.
|How about this one||Live Steam|
Aug 4, 2003 8:10 AM
|Things don't work for Postal and Tyler after '04. Weisel already said they would go with a non-American so could you envision Jan in RWB postal colors?
Crash obviously lets his dislike of LA color his emotional responses. LA is better that Ullrich on a few levels - right now he may just be marginally, physically better than him, but tactically and technically he is a much better racer. Ullrich needs more seasoning to become a better tactition and he also needs to work on his technical skills. He is all about raw power, but I don't think he is efficient and he is a "relatively" poor bike handler.
|How about this one||Spoiler|
Aug 4, 2003 9:44 AM
|Crash, I'm surpised this nic didn't catch on and stick. If Elephantino can stick, this could.
I don't see Tyler returning to Postal. He has a perfectly good team now. He has a DS that loves him, a team that respects him, and he's an undisputed leader. He seems to have adjusted to a foreign team well.
Before this year's Tour, I've seen Lance constantly on the radio to Johan. I got the idea that Lance wasn't such a great tactician, but he was smart enough to rely on someone like Johan. This year, I hardly saw Lance on the radio. Maybe he's learning from Johan and doesn't need the constant advice. I don't think any of Jan's coaches or DS's ever taught him anything. They just said, "Pedal the bike and let us do the thinking."
Jan could win the Tour of he had USPS working for him. But even with Lance retired, Jan would be stepping even further into Lance's shadow. If Jan could handle that, he could be rewarded with another yellow.
If Jan ever won with USPS, you'd get a whole pack of people claiming this proves the only difference between Lance and Jan was the team. If he failed, it could finish him off.
|Dang...GREAT POINT! Ref. Jan and USPS.||Canidraftyou|
Aug 4, 2003 11:56 AM
"Jan would be stepping even further into Lance's shadow." reference to riding for postal. No better way of saying it. Lance would have to piss someone off really bad for the USPS to dis him like that.
|Good points all ...||Crash|
Aug 4, 2003 12:45 PM
|I also think that if Jan wins his next Tour and Lance is not racing in it the win would be diminished in Jan's eyes no matter what team he's on. Some very good points on Jan's choice of which team to go with. He has to accept responsibility for the team he is on. And while I'm not a gigantic Lance fan (although probably more than you might think) I do think overcoming what he had to and accomplishing what he had to do was amazing. Was this year just an aberration or the start of the fall? No one is great forever; Lance has had a fantastic run. I really think next year there will be 6-8 guys with a legitimate chance at the yellow jersey. Just my personal opinion, but if Lance does repeat next year it will make this year look like a cakewalk. Should make for some great racing!|
|Jan has a disadvantage, more upper body, "Momentum"||Canidraftyou|
Aug 4, 2003 12:17 PM
|Momentum is something you want to keep going into/coming out of an Apex. Jan carries to much momentum for his skill level. This has been displayed more than just a few times. Jan should be able to make the apex at the same speed as others with the right technic, he has the know how, but he is required to get it right everytime. Like an earlier post, where I got hammered by some. Lance and team had to know Jan would crash out with the wet roads and they were prepaired for it to happen.