|Interesting those who are missing....||zero85ZEN|
Jul 25, 2003 10:14 AM
|from this message board since, oh, STAGE 15! I've noticed some of the "Lance doubters" have been pretty silent of late. Anyone else notice this as well?|
|I still doubt,||TJeanloz|
Jul 25, 2003 10:18 AM
|While I sat on the fence with the "lot of race left" fallback. I firmly believe that Ullrich has very good odds of winning the final TT, and that he has fair (1:4) odds of winning by more than 65 seconds. Anybody who can view the race objectively has to be thinking the same thing.|
|I agree...||James OCLV|
Jul 25, 2003 10:30 AM
|I think that the race could go either way. If you would have asked me before stage 12, I would have thought it possible for Ullrich to beat Lance in the ITT, but impossible to do so by 1:36...
I think that it's clear that Lance was suffering from something in the earlier stages, and he appears to be better now - but the margins are so close that I think it could go either way. Lance is either gonna have it or he's not. Ullrich hasn't been this good since 1997, and Lance hasn't been this bad since 1996... So far it's been a bad combo for Lance. We can speculate all we want, but I were a betting man, I wouldn't bet on this one!
Jul 25, 2003 10:39 AM
|it is a crap shoot, the only thing is that lance has just over a minute on his side and he might well need all of it. If it were even right now, I would put all my money on JU, but with LA having a minute advantage and starting behind I think he can pull it off. Exciting stuff.|
|If I had money to bet....||zero85ZEN|
Jul 25, 2003 10:54 AM
|I'd bet on Armstrong to win the TT.
I'd also bet on him to win the Tour based on the handicap of 1:05.
Lance early in the Tour, and especially on Stage 12, was not a completely healthy Lance. He has been getting stronger the whole Tour since Stage 12.
I can't believe that Phil or Paul (or Bob Roll even) didn't notice what a high cadence Lance was using on the first ITT. It seemed awful high to me. Remember what happened last year in the first ITT with his high cadence? :-( If someone has stage 12 taped check it out and see what you think. Maybe I'm on crack but I noticed what seemed like high RPM's.
Also, Lance was equal with Jan at the first time split and then dropped away. Very out of character to how he usually rides a TT ("paced" at the beginning and stronger at the end). Leads me to believe that he was, in fact, suffering from the effects of dehydration. Did he realize he was in trouble and up his cadence to "control the damage" and save himself from exploding?
Am I complety out in left field on this?
|I noticed it too...||Ron B|
Jul 25, 2003 3:51 PM
|I made a coment before the Pyranese (spelling?) about the high cadence and the similarities to last years TT.
With the decrease in temps the past several days, Lances recovery from dehydration and his desire to win the TT, getting to pace himself off of Jan's time splits I can see Lance pulling out the win tomorrow, even if only by a small margin.
Of course I could be wrong, which is why they race the races. It should be fun to watch though.
|Too close to call.||Jon Billheimer|
Jul 25, 2003 10:40 AM
|My heart's with Lance...and I can't see Ullrich taking more than a minute out of him. But who knows? The suspense is driving me nuts!!!|
Jul 25, 2003 7:21 PM
|Lance loses 12 seconds. Nice coast for USPS into Champs Elysee.
You heard it here first! 12 seconds.
Be sure to congratulate me when it happens.
Anyone else want to wade in???
Jul 26, 2003 3:35 AM
|Ullrich takes 47 seconds from Lance, who is greatful and promises to train better for the heat next year. After another close victory, Lance retires to relish his 6 tour victories and rebuild all the relationships that took a back seat to his career. Paramount studios gets the movie rights. The rest will be history.|
|Still too many variables...||Dave Hickey|
Jul 25, 2003 11:06 AM
|All things being equal I don't think Lance will lose by more than 1:05 but there are too many things that can happen. There's a 80% chance of rain so either Lance or Jan could crash. Also, with the difference of 65 seconds, a mechanical could cost Lance the tour. How much time did JaJa lose in last years TT when his Cervelo had a flat?|
Jul 25, 2003 11:10 AM
|The two things that could really impact this final ITT would be a crash or a flat. The margin is just so close.|
|Before the Tour started ....||sacheson|
Jul 25, 2003 3:06 PM
|... I told a friend of mine 'I want to know the outcome now so I can sit back and enjoy the race!' With that said, I don't know that I am that worked up over it anymore. I mean, if anyone inhibits Lance acheiving his 5th, what a better sportsman than Ullrich. He's shown that he prepared meticulously for this Tour, even with the obstacles he's overcome getting his career back on track.
Sure I'd like to see Lance get his record-equalling win, but seeing potentially the most talented cyclist of this era win the race that has relegated him to nearly eternal bride's maid status would be awesome as well.
AND regardless of either person winning, I thank them up and down (Tyler included) for making this the best TdF I can remember.
My prediction: Ullrich wins the ITT by 36". LA wins the overall.
OH ... and to comment on your observation - YES, they've been a lot more reserved!
|1.3 sec per km & Jan wins||flying|
Jul 25, 2003 9:03 PM
|Hard to believe eh? |
But in less time than it takes to say 1.3 per km
That is all Jan needs.............
I really like em both & would be happy to see either win.
I am just so grateful for an exciting tour for a change.
I only wish Beloki were still there too.
That would have toughened up the race even more in the mountains.
Good Luck to all!!!