|Anyone else worried Lance and company have been ..||koala|
Jul 25, 2003 7:34 AM
|a little too confident about this last time trial? I have noticed he looks much better than earlier on but even before the last day of climbing Lance seemed almost cocky saying he had never lost the last time trial. He hadnt been spanked so badly as the last ITT either. Guess I am just nervous. Great race...|
|Part gamesmanship...part psyching himself up||Roger2|
Jul 25, 2003 7:42 AM
|One, I think he is trying to get into Jan's head, maybe get him to go out to hard early and blow.
I also think he's trying to bring as much desire and will as he has in him to the surface to drive hime to have a great TT.
He has looked healthier since the second day of the Pyrnees.
|what else is he supposed to do?||mohair_chair|
Jul 25, 2003 7:48 AM
|Can you imagine the team saying things like "oh man, he has to win, he just HAS to win" or "I don't think Lance can do it."
Can you imagine Lance saying "I think I'll get beat" or "Ullrich is going to smack me hard, kick me in the head, and spit on my broken body."
No. These guys are totally confident that Lance will win. Lance is totally confident he'll win. They all have to be. You don't get to the top by doubting yourself.
Jul 25, 2003 8:08 AM
|First of all, LA got dehydrated and lost something like 12lbs in the first TT. If that hadn't happened, that time gap would have been much closer. That will not happen again.
Second, LA is ultra motivated. He will win because he has the will to do so. He was beat by Botero on the first TT last year, and came back to win the final TT.
Third, Jan knows he has to ride hard from the start. That is a recipe for blowing up! Jan probably will not ride the same avg speed he did in the first TT becuase of this. LA will know all of Jan's splits, and can meter his own effort based on those. I wouldn't be surprised to see LA miss Jan's first two splits and then beat him on the last few.
|Absolutley not overconfident, but it's far from in the bag..||James OCLV|
Jul 25, 2003 10:45 AM
|If you think that LA is ultra motivated, what about Jan?
He's so close that he can smell the Yellow Jersey. He beat Lance by 1:36 (we can only speculate as to LA's condition), and LA didn't destroy him in the Pyrenees.
If you really look at the first ITT, LA didn't really do all that bad. He put 30 seconds into Vino (very good form and super motivated), and a 1 + minutes into 4th place. Lance has never won an ITT by the 3 + minute margins that Ullrich has in the past... It could be argued that LA was slightly off his best in the ITT, and Ullrich was back to the winning form that he desplayed in 1997...
So what does that mean for LA? It means that it's neither impossible nor improbable that Ullrich will win the ITT AND do so by the 1:05 that he needs...
LA's TT results vs. Ullrich
2000 - LA by :25
2001 # 1 - LA by 1:00
2001 # 2 - LA by 1:39
This is Lance at his best, and Ullrich at his not so best...
This one is too close to call...