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How Jan can win(21 posts)

How Jan can winmohair_chair
Jul 22, 2003 1:33 PM
I just read something interesting that said that Lance and USPS might have to contest intermediate sprints and stage finishes to prevent Ullrich from getting any time bonuses.

Ullrich could conceivably cut a significant chunk from his deficit if he goes on the hunt, but I don't think he'll do it. For one thing, the green jersey race is still tight, so he'll have to fight off Baden Cooke, Hushovd, and McEwen.

Green jersey aside, Ullrich, like Armstrong, seems like an "all-in" type of guy who won't nickel and dime his way to victory. I can't imagine anything other than he and Armstrong going mano a mano in the final TT, winner take all.

He could just win the final TT by 1'39" (nm)TJeanloz
Jul 22, 2003 1:37 PM
Wouldn't that be easier than winning the sprints?

Are there even time bonuses for the hot spot sprints, or just at the finish this year?
why not win the final stage, too?mohair_chair
Jul 22, 2003 1:49 PM
Armstrong will likely be a lot stronger for the final TT, which will be easier and cooler, so Ullrich putting 1:39 into him doesn't seem likely.


Article 26 -Bonuses
The following bonuses of 20", 12" and 8" are awarded to the first three riders for all road racing stage finishes from the 1st to the 20th stage inclusive, except during the 4th, 9th and 19th stages (time trials)

In each hot-spot sprint from the 1st to the 20st stage inclusive, the first three riders placed are awarded 6", 4" and 2" respectively.
uh, because they aren't sprinters?DougSloan
Jul 22, 2003 1:53 PM
Best they could do is get others in the sprint to deprive the opponent of time bonuses. The green jersey competition will likely make this discussion moot, though.

Ullrich ismohair_chair
Jul 22, 2003 2:36 PM
Ullrich began his career as a sprinter, and while he's no Cipollini (who was a very good TT guy in his teenage years), he can finish well. He's scored seconds and thirds before in Giro sprint stages and has won plenty of flat races. If you've ever saw him work in Zabel's leadout train, you'd know how fast he really is.
If I were him, I'd try, then; I've never seen Lance sprint nmDougSloan
Jul 22, 2003 2:45 PM
trying to find official rules, but this suggests there areDougSloan
Jul 22, 2003 1:52 PM
"By finishing second in an intermediate sprint, McGee picked up four bonus seconds, his new lead..."
agree with TJ, Jan can pull LeMondcyclopathic
Jul 22, 2003 1:55 PM
game is not over yet.


PS time bonuses:
Stage win: 20, 12, 8 (don't ask me why)
Sprints: 6,4,2
but Lance has aerobars, too nmDougSloan
Jul 22, 2003 2:07 PM
and Jan doesn't have pony tail nmcyclopathic
Jul 22, 2003 2:19 PM
I thought it was only 67 seconds? (nm)Dwayne Barry
Jul 22, 2003 2:53 PM
It is, but he already put 1'39" into Lance in a ~50k TT (nm)TJeanloz
Jul 23, 2003 4:59 AM
Won't happen again. (nm)CHRoadie
Jul 23, 2003 6:20 AM
Sunday's finale, a staggered start?crestlinefarm
Jul 22, 2003 2:11 PM
Will Sunday's final stage be a regular group start? Someone told me it was staggered, which sounded absurd...
only if they are drunk nmmohair_chair
Jul 22, 2003 2:17 PM
someone is yanking your chain nmDougSloan
Jul 22, 2003 2:53 PM
re: How Jan can winMellowVelo
Jul 22, 2003 2:42 PM
I would say that it would be bright of USPS to get someone in the breaks early to eat up some of those points to deter Jan from trying, but in a pure sprint Lance is probably a bit better than Ullrich if they actually decided to contest them - unlikely all the way around though.
Really?Dwayne Barry
Jul 22, 2003 3:10 PM
I thought Ullrich has something of a reputation as a useful sprinter from a small group, although just about everytime I can remember seeing him contest one he botches it tactically.

On the other hand it seems like Armstrong (post-cancer) usually gets blown out in sprints unless their at the top of a climb. Of course, now he doesn't even contest them anymore (i.e. Amstel Gold).

On size alone, I'd put money on Ullrich in a straight-up sprint between the two.
re: How Jan can winmapei boy
Jul 22, 2003 3:51 PM
Armstrong's current lead was padded thanks to his First Place Time Bonus at Luz Ardiden. Thus, it'd be perfectly fair for Ullrich to go after time bonuses on tomorrow's stage. We also have to remember that if it weren't for Postal's victory in the Team Time Trial, Lance might STILL be looking for that Yellow Jersey. As Mohair reports, though, the tactic probably wouldn't work, because Lance would certainly use his domestiques to make sure Ullrich got as few of those bonuses as possible. And then there are all those other dudes bent on grabbing some bonus points, too.
Considering the '03 tour so far...amflyer
Jul 22, 2003 9:33 PM
...I'm probably way off, but, I have a suspicion that Armstrong will surprise everyone and win the TT. Can't wait to see if I'm right.

Would that really be a surprise?Dwayne Barry
Jul 23, 2003 3:28 AM
Seems like many if not most people believe he will win the final TT believing that the only reason he lost the first one was because of dehydration.

You'd be way off if you picked someone other than Armstrong or Ullrich to win the TT, that would indeed be a surprise.