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Will LA win LeTour 6 times?(17 posts)

Will LA win LeTour 6 times?Marketing Dept
Jul 17, 2003 8:53 AM
O.K., I am going out on a limb here with the assumption that #5 is in the bag. No, I am not superstitious(knock on wood, salt over my shoulder, is tomorrow the 13th?)

5 in a row is awesome, but 6 races (in a row on top of that) is in-human. I have long suspected that LA is from an alien race (OK, not superstitious but maybe paranoid)and a #6 would prove it to me.

If he does pull this #5 off, how could he not be tempted to go for the #6?
Very unlikelycyclopathic
Jul 17, 2003 9:13 AM
he even starts #6 if he pulls this off. He had to dig really deep on l'Alpe d'Huez, and it'll be even harder next year. He never had to race on borrowed time.
Respectfully disagree......Len J
Jul 17, 2003 9:33 AM
I think that IF he wins number 5, the only thing that keeps him from starting next year is a major injury.

Now whether or not he wins #6 is a big question.....but there is no doubt he will start.IMO

Len
A lot of questions will be answered tomorrow.OldEdScott
Jul 17, 2003 9:41 AM
A good ITT tomorrow keeps open the possibility for six. (Hell, it keeps open the possibility for FIVE).

I really hope LA doesn't go for six if he's not capable of winning. I HATE it when great champions come apart before our very eyes on the world stage. My fellow Kentuckian Muhammad Ali comes to mind. His last few fights were just agony to watch.
I agree...James OCLV
Jul 17, 2003 9:48 AM
As was Indurain's 6th attempt...

Tomorrow will tell the tale - if Lance's form truly is off, he won't be able to hide it.
I don't see why not...James OCLV
Jul 17, 2003 9:36 AM
I still don't understand why everyone is saying that he's not as good as in previous years... because he didn't sprint away from everyone on L'Alpe? Geez, I could understand if he got attacked by Beloki or another rival and coudn't counter(and lost time). Okay, so he gave some time up to Vino. It's not like he was put into difficulty... Stage 9 was a freak thing - I'd be willing to be that if Beloki didn't crash, they would have caught Vino. I'd also be willing to bet that it won't happen again. Vino has made himself a marked man.

The Tour is barely half over, and Lance is already in Yellow. I haven't seen anything yet to indicate that he's in any trouble.

I think that he's riding a very calculated race right now. I think that by Monday, all of the nay-sayers will be singing a different tune (or, I'll be eating my words!)
I agreeChen2
Jul 17, 2003 10:05 AM
So far he has done everything right in order to win the GC. I think this year he has been a bit more conservative and cautious. Wisdom comes with age. If he retires in the next few years it will be a case of mental fatigue including family obligations. His body is not too old. We plan to be in France next year to watch him take the 6th.
~Al
People who know Lance...Jon Billheimer
Jul 17, 2003 11:19 AM
...have said that six Tour wins has been his goal since his second Tour victory. Can he do it? Obviously the more you win the harder it gets. Age, stress, competition, and simple, numerical odds are against it. But this is a guy who has lived his entire live overcoming adversity. I'm not saying he will, but I'd never, never count him out.

BTW, tomorrow will be telling. I'm betting he wins the TT by 45 secs or more.
great post!MaRider
Jul 17, 2003 12:04 PM
I agree for the most part. A lot of the reactions you see are the difference between expectations and reality, rather than objective look at what is really going on.
Ullrich loses 2 minutes to Lance and everyone still thinks he is in great shape. Lance doesn't blow away everyone by 2 or 3 minutes and everyone things he is going to crack.
I still think it's too early to say whether Lance is in good form or not. So far he has been riding a strategically sane race - don't chase everyone, only the major GC threats. It was clearly part of the plan. I am sure everyone would like him to blow away the competition in the first mountain stage, but this is sort of the same thing as all the people who expected him to pull away during the prologue. Tour is a 21-day race, and Lance remembers it better than anyone. He still holds all the cards. I don't think we've seen what he is capable of yet.
Tour is all about energy and effort management - over 3 weeks of riding. With two ITT's and some major climbs in Pyrenees, it's probably wise to hold something back.
I believe Lance and Carmichael and Bruneel went over the whole tour and decided where and how much they would like to gain. Attacking while you are ahead is risky. You never know what tomorrow brings. The Tour has barely started.
Perhaps Lance is in shape, perhaps he is not, but so far it's too early to tell. Tomorrow it will be more clear where everyone stands. With another nearly identical ITT stage to come, you can see how much time he needs to hold in the Pyranees.
Will he try?TJeanloz
Jul 17, 2003 11:17 AM
As has been pointed out below, Armstrong has become something of a sportsman, and has always had great respect for Eddy Merckx. It wouldn't shock me if he walked away after 5 - establishing that as the bar for successful cyclists. And then he could spend next season focusing on the olympic gold that he's always wanted.
Setting the standard and going for the gold...Marketing Dept
Jul 17, 2003 12:42 PM
Wow, someone is looking at the big picture. I like that idea, but a chance to go for six...

Here is the test, who can name the last 3 gold medal winners vs. who can name the number of 5 time Tour winners?

If it were me, I got to go for immortality of a 6 time tour winner.
Ah, for the average cycling fan,TJeanloz
Jul 17, 2003 1:30 PM
The average cycling fan would have an easier time naming Tour winners - though I bet beyond Indurain and Merckx, a lot couldn't get the other two. Now how many Americans could name an obscure gold medalist from 10 years ago? Probably more.

The trouble with winning 6 is that it solidifies (wrongly IMHO) the idea that Armstrong is only a Tour rider, and as such is not so impressive. Each of the others with 5 wins has other grand tours to their credit, and people will argue that the competition was weak etc.

I think he's better off diversifying out of the Tour business.
will not win 5jradford
Jul 17, 2003 1:12 PM
check out this web site and read the secotion on tour de france 2003 and then tell me if he will win.

best one is his report on the stage on july 17.

http://coachcarl.com/Index.html
Let's see,TJeanloz
Jul 17, 2003 1:47 PM
Who do I trust more to coach my team, Johann Brunyeel, or some guy who was the New Mexico state champion in 1969?

His theory about the guys wearing themselves out before the TT is all well and good, if they're trying to win the team overall. But where they (except Lance) place in the TT is irrelevant. They won't miss the time cut - I don't know that anybody has ever missed a time cut at a TT. This guy has no concept of the quality of the athlete that is in the Tour.

I find it pretty amusing that this schmo is questioning Johann, who has ridden in a few tours, and directed 4 winning efforts. I'm putting my money on USPS.
we will see (nm).jradford
Jul 17, 2003 2:20 PM
I guess we'll see is right...James OCLV
Jul 17, 2003 5:42 PM
I suppose that expending extra energy when you don't have to is a good strategy, according to Coach Carl. I mean, it's not like Lance is in Yellow or anything... Boy, what a bad strategy...

While true that it's the job of Lance's team to protect him, at some point the leader has to come out and fend for himself. I mean, if all of his domestiques were strong enough to hang with the likes of Lance, Beloki & Ullrich, they should be contenders in their own right and not working for someone else.

The damn race is barely at the half-way point. Everyone is passing judement on the results of one mountain stage (and it's not like Lance got dropped or anything, he just didn't hammer the s!@t out of everyone!). We have yet to have the first ITT, and there are still 4 mountain stages left. Food for thought:: as you all well know, Indurain never won a road race stage in the 5 Tours de France that he won. He did all that he had to to hang on in the mountains. Nothing more.

It's the same thing every year. In 2001, Lance was down 35 minutes going into the L'Alpe d'Huez stage. Everyone thought that he was done for. Last year, when he lost the first ITT to Botero, everyone thought that he was done for...

If Coach Carl is such a master tactician (to openly criticize Bruyneel like that), how come he isn't over there in Europe directing a pro team?
What this guy is saying is depressingXeo
Jul 18, 2003 1:18 AM
This so called professional coach is talking about USPS forcing the tempo, dragging the peleton, expending vital energy needlessly, and blowing apart by the first stage in the pyrenees. I'm getting a little depressed reading his rabble, I just hope his predictions don't come to fruition.

He even mentions the possibility of some of the USPS riders not making the cutoff limit in the ITT tomorrow. What is this guy talking about???

I need to go to bed before I get nightmares about his comments.

ZZZzzz Let's hope good news is brought after the ITT and thank God for Tivo, I don't think I'm getting up at 6:00 am to watch OLN.