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Rest Day Poll: Now Who's Your Pick for Second?(17 posts)

Rest Day Poll: Now Who's Your Pick for Second?gregg
Jul 16, 2003 8:05 AM
From our Home Page Quick Poll, about 81% of people believe Lance will make it 5 in a row...

But who will be second?

Before the start of Le Tour, I had bet on Beloki and my boss took Hamilton. At the end of stage 2 I felt horrible for Tyler, but felt my bet was then safe. How wrong I was. 7 stages later, and my boy is out for good.

Now, I will have to pick Ullrich as second.

-gregg
gkato@roadbikereview.com

(can't believe how many bullets Lance has dodged thus far!)
MayoEman
Jul 16, 2003 8:09 AM
I'm really impressed by Mayo right now, but it is pretty hard to guess how strong Ullrich really is at the moment. Friday will reveal a lot!
Ullrich, for sure nmMaRider
Jul 16, 2003 8:14 AM
.
very difficult to say until the first ITT. nmJS Haiku Shop
Jul 16, 2003 8:16 AM
What about Vino?MXL02
Jul 16, 2003 8:38 AM
Nobody is really talking about him, yet he seems to be riding an inspired Tour thus far. How is he as a time trialist?
VINOKOUROVScot_Gore
Jul 16, 2003 9:00 AM
I too would have picked Beloki for 2nd at the start. Based on 10 stages of riding, I'll pick VINOKOUROV.

I think Hamilton's injury will keep him from good results after 3 weeks of hard riding, Mayo dosn't have the team, and Ullrich just dosn't appear to have the desire (MHO).

Scot
Lance. He bluffs his way into second.fcebedo
Jul 16, 2003 9:10 AM
Take that all ye 'Lance is Bluffing' zealots.

Gregg's Boss.
Lance.OldEdScott
Jul 16, 2003 9:18 AM
Unless and until he does something to convince me this first half was a brilliant tactical charade.
Hamilton in 2nd, Ulrich 3rd (nm)BIGBOB
Jul 16, 2003 9:38 AM
Vino or Lance...biknben
Jul 16, 2003 10:11 AM
I'd be concerned about Vino if I were Lance. He showed he can TT during the Swiss tour last month. He took over the race for good with his TT effort.
Ullrich 2nd, Vino 3rd...James OCLV
Jul 16, 2003 11:07 AM
I'm still betting on Lance for the win. I don't think that he was bluffing, but I don't think that he's played all of his cards yet, either. A couple of things to consider:

1. Going into the first rest day last year, Lance was 26 seconds behind Gonzalez.
2. The first ITT usually falls before the first Mtn. Stages.
3. The Pyrenees, on paper, appear to be harder than the Alps. this year.
4. If you were really off your game, would you announce it? "Hmm... I feel weak; let me tell everyone that I feel just okay but not great, give them hope and encourage them to attack me..."

I personally think that Lance is encouraging everyone to bury themselves... Okay, he's only in the lead by 21 seconds... We still have the first ITT and 4 days in the Pyrenees.
has Vino ever done well in a TT?DougSloan
Jul 16, 2003 12:07 PM
Vino was 25 seconds back in the 4 mile Prologue. Has he ever done a stage race TT well? If not, he's well out of even the top 5.

Doug
His TT made the difference in the Swiss Tour...biknben
Jul 16, 2003 12:38 PM
In the Swiss Tour he sent Casagrande packing on the second to last day. I don't recall the numbers but his TT effort put him in the lead for good. Casagrande, who had been the leader, didn't even bother to start the next day.

The Swiss tour is one that LA has used in past years as a warm up for the TDF and won. This year Vino used it as a warm up and won. That is cause for concern for me.

His climbing style look like that of a TTer. Low cadence mashing, similar to Ullrich.
5th in TTDougSloan
Jul 16, 2003 1:19 PM
I see he was 5th in the TT, 1:12 down from McGee, and 22 sec behind Ullrich. http://www.tds.ch/e/tour_de_suisse_after03.php

He could be peaking now, though.

Doug
Vino or UllrichPhatMatt
Jul 16, 2003 12:02 PM
I still think it is all tactics and Lance is playing possum so to speak. He seems to answer the attacks that he feels are a major threat with ease. So that is just my guess. But hey what the hell do I know.

Matt
I had Beloki but now.....boneman
Jul 16, 2003 2:24 PM
A lot will be determined by the results of the TT on Friday. If LA doesn't get a good margin on 6 riders currently behind him, USPS is going to mark most of the moves by that group of six allowing little freedom to significantly change the standings.

I have Mayo, Ullrich and Vinokourov for the remaining two steps on the podium.

Vino's taken it up a level this year and he's got Kivi riding with him in his mind. Plus these guys from Kazakhstan are hard men. However, he's never been consistent in the high mountains and not a top level ITT man.

Ullrich- Is he riding into shape or has he plateaued and still lacks race miles? Can he drop his former teamate on the climbs or is he back to earlier form and going to make up time in the ITT's?

Mayo- I earlier said next year but the team's giving him support and he's going well, especially in the mountains and the Pyrenees are the next big climbing stages. It's in the heart of Basque country and you can bet that the boys in Orange will look to show themselves.

Okay, Ullrich followed by Mayo with Vino in 4th.

I'll be in Paris on the 26th and 27th to see it in person. Nice dinner on Saturday night on the Left Banke and then find a spot on the rail for some pictures and viewing.

These were done before the race started.

<boneman "Who's your pick for second?" 7/5/03 2:23am>
Pass the Mayo...Fignons_ponytail
Jul 16, 2003 5:14 PM
Mayo looked great in the Alps, but will get killed in the time trials. In last year's tour, he lost 5 minutes to Lance in one, and 7 minutes to Lance in the other! He put in a good time trial at the Dauphine only because it was a climb.

Vino's going to lose at least a minute to Lance in each time trial, and is going to get disciplined by Lance on stage 15.

If Tyler can heal up a bit in the next day or two and do well in the time trial, I pick him as third and Ullrich as second. No, Ullrich third, Tyler second. No, Tyler third, Ullrich second. I can't take it anymore!!