|What about Friday's ITT?||Dan-T|
Jul 15, 2003 10:37 AM
|Looking at the remaining GC contenders, what's the shakeout going to be from the ITT? Lance, Jan and Tyler can TT well. Lance will likely want to put time on the field. But what about Vino, Mayo and Mancebo who round out the top 6? I have no idea of how they could be expected to ride. Will any of them still be in contention?
Being a Marbleheader, I'm rooting for the hometown boy. I'm amazed that he's still in contention after the stage 1 crash. Without knowing much about Vino, Mayo & Mancebo's TT abilities, I'm expecting to seen Lance, Tyler and Jan on the podium in Paris at this point. Though Vino looks like he could be a spoiler for Tyler or Jan.
There's no shortage of opinions around here, so let 'em fly!
|Whatever the outcome...||QUiTSPiNiNArOuND|
Jul 15, 2003 3:30 PM
|It will speak the truth of the contenders, there really is no way of hiding bad form. Lance will not go slow on purpose, or anyone else for that matter. Everybody will give it 100%
I hope Lance can pull it off though, im sure MOST everybody will breathe a sigh of relief and say, " iknew it all along"...but only time will tell
Jul 15, 2003 5:23 PM
|Based on previous years, here's my prognosis on the time gains in each of 47/49 km ITT (both are relatively flat), for major GC contenders:
1. Armstrong 0:00
2. Ullrich 0:30
3. Hamilton 1:30
4. Vinokurov 2:00
5. Mayo 3:30
6. Mancebo 4:00
Basso, Zubeldia, 4:00+
Moreau and Millar have an outside shot of moving up into the top 10 after two ITT's, if they keep their positions in Pyrenees. Heras and Beltran might lose a chunk of time if they keep defending Lance in the mountains, and Euskaltel's Zubeldia and Laiseka will probably lose a lot of time in ITT's. So top 10 will be quite different in the end.
|Reverse 1 and 2...||seyboro|
Jul 15, 2003 7:30 PM
|...that'd be my guess, anyways. I have a good feeling about Ullrich. Plus, he always seems to find his form as the race progresses. I see with Hamilton losing around a minute and Vinokourov and Mayo at 2'. The rest will be of no consequence for the top five.|
|you could be right||MaRider|
Jul 16, 2003 7:46 AM
|I thought about it also. Ullrich seems to be in pretty good TT form and could be close to Armstrong. However, remember that he lost 1min+ in time trial in 2001. I could see Ullrich winning one TT and Lance winning the other.
I also think Mayo will lose considerably more time than Vino or Tyler. Like Simoni, he seems to be more of a pure climber, and he needs some hills to make up some time.
Lance's strategy seems to rely on the hypothetical gains in those two ITT, which is why if he keeps climbers under control he will pull away by a total of 5 minutes or more from Mayo and company. Which is also why Ullrich is still one of his main contenders.
Right now (assuming Pyranees won't change the situation too drastically - a HUGE "if"!) - I would say the final podium looks like this:
1. Armstrong 0:00
2. Ullrich 1:00-1:30
3. Vino or Tyler, but probably Vino, at 3:00-4:00
Of course Pyranees will change all of this.
|Lance only because...||Eman|
Jul 16, 2003 8:04 AM
|Of starting position. But even then I think he'll take < 20 s from Jan.|
|re: What about Friday's ITT?||al0|
Jul 16, 2003 11:17 AM
|Vinokourov is good in TT. He even may win (especially as this TT isn't completely flat). But more likely hewould be 2nd, in about 1'.|
|re: What about Friday's ITT?||il sogno|
Jul 16, 2003 11:39 AM
|I have a feeling Ullrich might win this one. He looks to be in good shape and for what it's worth, he said that his goal for the tour is to win a stage. Plus if LA is not quite up to form, you never know...|
|1. Armstrong 2. Miller 3. Botero||Spoiler|
Jul 16, 2003 2:36 PM