Jul 14, 2003 12:29 PM
|Does anyone think that LA is just playing the supreme rope a dope tactic with just staying in contact with the other climbers and ay come alive in the ITT's and in the Pyrenees? If he is taking this kind of gamble, DAMN he as a set on him.
Jul 14, 2003 12:33 PM
|The situation is that Lance holds all the cards right now. He's in the lead, everybody else has to attack him to improve their position, so he can just wait and respond. There's no compelling reason for him to go hard right now, as long as he's confident in his TT abilities, the ball is in everybody elses court.|
|re: LA Tactics||cyclopathic|
Jul 14, 2003 12:51 PM
|my guess there's no tactic LA would not gamble if he could help it and he'd use team if there were any teammates left. He is riding on defense and hoping to beat competition in ITT. Unless he cracks in Pyrenees or crashes out he will win I can't see Mayo or anyone else making enough time on 2 mnt top finishes to survive 2 ITTs. Today's move by Vino was brilliant.|
|re: LA Tactics||atpjunkie|
Jul 14, 2003 1:45 PM
|my guess is a conservative approach in the Alps as it would be too much on the team defending a lead this early. other teams will 'work' over the next few stages as they have a stake. it will make more teams responsible over the next few days than USPS and the Sprint teams. the tactics change with the events, now USPS has an ally in Euskatel as they are after the team trophy. I don't think MAyo has the ability to be a GC (not a great TTer) threat and he and LA have a mutual admiration from the D.L. Plus LA knows he has 2 TT's to do damage and a trio of Spanish climbers who will love to flex before their fans. I think the Pyr. is where they plan to seal the deal. LA said he was willing to lose half a minute to preserve a teammate in the alps so that implies he's 'saving' them.
He hasn't won Tourmalet yet, look for it there.
Also what happened to all the big talkers? Simoni, Aitor and Botero. 2 are 50 minutes down one a DNF. Great move by Vin. today but Beloki's wreck gave him a minimum of 20 extra seconds. without it, he may have been caught. another 'situational strategic' advantage.
|re: LA Tactics||cyclopathic|
Jul 14, 2003 2:53 PM
|Vino was 15sec up over the top. That and time bonus. I don't think he shoulda lost time going downhill.
Agree there will be all kinds of deals made, but I don't think there will be that many in USPS favor. There isn't many sprinters left after what Posties did in Alps. Euskatel maybe after team trophy but they have enough good climbers to kick back, wait 'till last climb and let Posties drive. Beloki is out so ONCE will not chaice Vino; more teams likely to align around Telekom/Bianchi then USPS IMHO.
Mayo has a good chance if LA cracks and Tourmalet will be another Alpe d'Huez.
|Alpe d Huez||atpjunkie|
Jul 14, 2003 3:54 PM
|you mean Lance will lose stage but keep GC lead? Lance is no where near 'cracking' he countered every attack and still pipped them in the sprint. He always lets non GC threats go. Laseika 2 years ago, E.E. doesn't have the team moxy to maintain a GC lead especially with no TTers. no sprinters?
Zabel, McEwan, Cooke, O'Grady, Nazon, Kiirsipuu?
watch for Merckx tomorrow. watch for Lance at Tourmalet.
Jul 14, 2003 4:14 PM
|was 10 sec. at time of crash. it's been obvious you have a LA grudge, weren't you the big "simoni will put it to him" proponent, "pure climber" guy? Anais Nin said it best "we don't see things as they are, we see things as we are"
go Axel , repeat Dad's feat!
|Zubeldia is pretty close..||spox|
Jul 15, 2003 1:27 AM
|..in GC and it looks he has learned to TT better.|
|this is pathetic||cyclopathic|
Jul 15, 2003 7:32 AM
|there's no point to argue if desire to see good tour with real competition means "it's been obvious you have a LA grudge".
PS. "we don't see things as they are, we see things as we are" applying it to you means you are homosexual in love with LA. live you dream give him a bl0w job
|you are pathetic||atpjunkie|
Jul 15, 2003 5:44 PM
|first lets see, yesterday you said Euskatel wouldn't help USPS, wrong. After the Giro you said Simoni and the pure climbers would crush LA, wrong. Most of your points have followed this poor logic.
I'm a classics guys, race cx and dig bad weather. I appreciate the "Flahute" riders. Do you know what that means? I'm no Armstrong groupie which allows me to watch tour 'unbiased' which is how I draw my conclusions based on fact not personal predjudices.
You appear to lack peloton knowledge, savvy or any historical perspective.When shown the errors of his own logic reaches for lame ad hominum attacks. Latin? literary quotes? philosophy, logic? I assume this is all over your pin shaped but quite aerodynamic head. You have a grudge, admit it and quit making judgements based upon it. As far as my gender preference, sorry my wife and daughter would beg to differ with you, but if you are ever in San Diego, send me a shout and we can settle this like 'men'. And FYI I'm not your average 130 lb 'pure climber' you sem to fancy. I'm an ex heavyweight rower turned cyclist for fun and suffering. So why are you so full of vitriol?
|they must have chased really hard||cyclopathic|
Jul 17, 2003 5:19 AM
|if gap end up over 20min
"we don't see things as they are, we see things as we are"
|it was hard enough.||atpjunkie|
Jul 17, 2003 5:21 PM
|they still were #3 losing time to ibanesto but still in the hunt. do you have any other explanation for a bunch of skinny basque climbers making tempo? it's this nuance you seem to miss, like Mayo 'dropping' LA in the Alps. He was 6 minutes down he got 2:12 back and will lose around 3-5 tomorrow. Sometimes just enough is all you need. Study Indurain's career, he measured his efforts quite carefully to achieve overall victory, won the fewest stages of any 5 x winner and the only to win 5 in a row. (Merckx would have but took a year off to win Giro, Vuelta and World Hr. Mark) Anquetil was the same way. Poulidor was a better climber, Anquetil would give him enough time in the hills but take it back in the TT's. It's nothing new. Merckx and Hinault were the only 2 who tried to win every race (eddy usually did). except when he was 'dropped' on one stage in the Alps 1971 that led to his lone break to Marseilles. It's the difference, of being dropped and conceding time to a rider who poses no real GC threat. Look at Virenque, victorious one day and loses 8 plus minutes the next (will lose 5 more tomorrow in the TT).
To win GC you must be judicious, create some allies and attack when you get the most benefit. E.E. and USPS, besides having the Spanish connection have a respectful relationship, read the Mayo/ Armstrong quotes from D.L. and don't forget Laseika's break on Luz Ardidien in 2001. LA had been ruling the mountains with an iron fist that tour but behaved like Mig, a patron and let it go.
So your 20 minute gap by riders who's top seed was 49 minutes down is non consequential to USPS but of meaning to E.E. they had to reel in some time to stay within striking distance as they will have many hi finishers in their home turf of the Pyrenees. You don't have to do it all at once.
|re: it was hard enough.||cyclopathic|
Jul 18, 2003 7:16 AM
|Euskaltel was waiting too long and hoping that someone will chase the break. They only came up front when they realized that sprinter teams barely survived the Alps and in no position to chase and Postal rides upfront to prevent attacks: with the big group up the road someone of top 20 bridging could have been very dangerous.
I think you misread my original post. By any means I did not imply other teams would not make deals with USPS. All I said that there less reason to make the deal with Postal then with other teams.
Second, many in peloton are not happy with torture Postal put them through on Galibier. If they have a chance and it doesn't cost them much they'd stab their back.
Third Mayo, Tylor, Ulrich maybe friends with LA but they're in business of winning races, and to win the race you have to get rid of competition. And who is your biggest competition? Isn't it more productive to work together to get rid of #1, and then race against weaker competitor then work with LA and then try to beat him alone? think about it.
Yes, teams in the past were compelled to forge alliance with USPS but the reason they'd team up with blue train they gave up on win and tried to preserve podium spot, just like Beloki did when he crashed out. In this sense Alpe d'Huez was a big loss for LA, there's nothing more dangerous for LA as competition believing they can beat him.
Anyways, we'll see what situation is after ITT. If situation won't change I don't see why any of teams with top 6 on GC /Telekom, EE, CSC, iBanesto, Bianchi/ would be compelled to help Posties in Pyrenees. However, they do have the reason to work together.
Pyrenees will be a treat, expect unexpected. Vino/Ulrich, Mayo/Mancebo will attack on numerous occations. Expect Simoni, Botero to come upfront and try for stage. LA will survive, but his chances aren't as good as they were in last coulpe years. And if he cracks we will have a new champion.