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Ventoux on Sunday!(spoiler)(10 posts)

Ventoux on Sunday!(spoiler)NPA
Jul 19, 2002 11:38 AM
so far Lance has won two stages with what appears to be fairly minimal effort, due to the enormous work of Heras...anyone else think he may be intentionally saving up to blow up the Ventoux sunday, since it is one of the more
"legendary" climbs?
re: Ventoux on Sunday!(spoiler)atpjunkie
Jul 19, 2002 11:44 AM
yes, he's hurting the Peloton (sans Beloki) with minimal effort. IMHO Lance wants his name on all the classics. He would have "given" Heras today had Beloki not recovered. When Johann radioed the news that Heras didn't bridge and Joseba did, did anyone else notice Lance put 45 seconds plus, from a 15 second lead to a 1:05 in less than 2K? He's cruising and crushing I don't think he'll go full bore until he needs to. This may be next year.
Was nice to see him set pace and try to break Joseba for Roberto, too bad it didn't work. How demoralizing that he's putting time on everyone and appears to be "playing" doing what he pleases.
save up for what?mr_spin
Jul 19, 2002 11:54 AM
If he won these stages with minimal effort, why would he need to use any more effort to win the next one?

I think he will go for it on Ventoux IF he has a chance to win. In other words, I think he will wait and see what happens. If he is in the leading group at the end, he'll take the stage.

I don't think he has a chance to win because of the profile. It's long a flat, with the final climb as the only obstacle. It's an ideal stage for a break to get away. A guy who can motor on the flats AND climb will is the likely winner.

I predict that the winning break will contain some of these guys: Dario Frigo, Unai Osa, Richard Virenque, Mario Aerts, Alexandre Botcharov, Bobby Julich, David Millar, Denis Menchov, Patrice Halgand, Jens Voigt. Most of these guys will fall off, but Virenque, Halgand, and Menchov will survive. The winner will be Menchov.

Lance will finish 5th behind Beloki, with the same time.
save up for what?atpjunkie
Jul 19, 2002 12:25 PM
wow, good prediction, I like it. Today USPS once again controlled the pace and made it to the base of the final climb with all 9 riders. Do you think a small break can escape for some part of a 170K flat roll up and have anything left for Ventoux? The only riders (if any) that will be allowed to break will be non GC threats. It is possible, but remember Ventoux is a 30K plus climb so a break lead is going to have to be over 5 minutes for LA to not reel in (if he wants) Lance gave Ventoux to Pantani 2 years ago and IMHO he wants it as another feather in his illustrious cap. I think the long flat will work against any break and LA will put minutes on everyone. He hasn't shown his whole deck of cards yet, and if he only needs 75% to win, he will give that. If he wants it, I think no one can stop him. He is the new cannibal.
If you are right I'll gladly eat these words.
yeahmr_spin
Jul 19, 2002 12:36 PM
I think the top guy I picked was Frigo, who is 13 minutes down. USPS will gladly let him get 5 minutes, but that would threaten the GC positions of some of the other teams. They would have to work to pull it back. Most of the guys I picked are good riders far enough down on GC to be let go. We'll see what happens.
yeahatpjunkie
Jul 19, 2002 3:49 PM
Yea ONCE and some others (including Kelme) will try to protect their riders GC positions and will actually help USPS keep track of any breaks. The threats are more to their riders than LA. expect to see more of the same at Ventoux with the boys doing pace work to the foothills, the Spaniards taking over and Lance launching at some point. Remember even signature moves like the "look" were launched from his crew. Lance says he wasn't staring down Ullrich but thanking Rubiera for good work. I see Heras getting another opportunity at Madeleine after Lance demoralizes the peloton some more. I think he'll get a chance to thank Roberto come monday. He hasn't needed to exploda away as steadily upping the tempo has done enough damage. This style actually suits Lance's high cadence pedaling and Heras is the perfect helper. Rubiera was nails today, that last burst before he dropped off is what really hurt everyone and launched Lance and Roberto.
save up for what?Good point....NPA
Jul 19, 2002 12:33 PM
What i was getting at is maybe he would launch a solo attack on the climb,as opposed to using Heras or someone else to pull all the way...try to put his "signature" on the stage(i.e. "the look" w/ullrich) ....but you're right- the more i think about it the dumber it sounds. it seems this year its all about using the team's skills to maximum advantage, and Lance isn't going to do something that risky unless absolutely necessary. nice breakdown...can't wait to see if you're right.
save up for what?Pygme
Jul 20, 2002 7:06 PM
What are you smoking?
**SPOILER** SPOILER**cyclejim
Jul 21, 2002 7:33 AM
You were absolutely right that Virenque and Botcharov would be in a winning break. Menchov didnt win and Lance finished 3rd with Beloki about 2 mins back but other than that, nice predictions there!
**SPOILER** SPOILER**atpjunkie
Jul 22, 2002 7:48 PM
good on the Virenque prediction. did you see him suffer though? I was glad as I'm a big Domo fan. Dig the Classics ( and those Merckx Team SC's) and they are the team who rules the slop. Scary that Lance gained 7 minutes on them and never looked stressed. If Beloki would have attacked earlier would LA have gained more time? would he have caught a blowing Virenque...we'll never know. I think he was in defense mode as he lost his team early. Watch for him on Madeleine, I think his next big attack goes there. I don't know whose been asking who, whose been smoking what, so please point your slags more directly to the author so we can figure out who you are slagging.
If it was directed the Virenque prediction, I think you owe an aplogy. If it was to me...how 'bout.....hmmmmm .....yo' mama's drawers!