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So, is Galdeano a climber? (partial spoiler?)(21 posts)
|So, is Galdeano a climber? (partial spoiler?)||DougSloan|
Jul 15, 2002 7:39 AM
|Looks like Lance is fine unless Galdeano can climb. He certain can time trial TT results.
Can he climb?
|re: So, is Galdeano a climber? (partial spoiler?)||scottfree|
Jul 15, 2002 7:44 AM
|He can climb, but he on his own is not Lance's problem. The problem is, there's a whole big wad of tough Spanish climbers who are now smelling blood, and could cooperate to wear Lance/Postal down. This could get interesting.|
|re: smelling blood? that is hilarious!||cyclejim|
Jul 15, 2002 8:32 PM
|Why would you think they are smelling blood? Because he lost the TT by 10 seconds? Is that an indicator that he is going to crack in the mountains? Doubtful. They are smart enough to know that the 3 time tour winner isnt finished yet.|
|re: smelling blood? that is hilarious!||scottfree|
Jul 16, 2002 8:08 AM
|These are competitors. Competitors look for any sign of weakness in their opponents. Look at it from a competitor's point of view: Failing to dominate the TT is a sign of weakness, compared with his past performance. Lance IS getting older, after all. All the greats crack someday.
Hell, if they didn't take this as a hopeful sign, and use it to motivate them to renewed efforts in the mountains, they should just stay home and do the bike path Sunday morning.
|re: smelling blood? that is hilarious!||JSchneb|
Jul 16, 2002 9:14 AM
|From an aerobic capacity standpoint, most athelets hit their "peak" in their early 30's.
We can all speculate, but no one really knows why Lance didn't dominate yesterday. After all, I read in Floyd Landis' diary that Brunyeel instructed the rest of Postal to ride at 90% and save themselves for the Mtns., and they all still finished pretty well. Maybe Lance was doing the same... Maybe he thinks that this Tour will be won in the mountains (after all, they start on Thursday and run all the way to the end), and he want's to be able to be at 100%...
He wouldn't exactly come out and say this publicly of course...
On the othe hand, Botero did beat LA in the Dauphine TT (and then LA put 18 minutes on him in the mountains)!
Jul 15, 2002 7:52 AM
|But he's no Lance. If Lance is on form, there is no one who can stay with him.
The only recent head to head battle was the Midi Libre in May. Galdeano was 2nd overall, Lance was 1st. Galdeano beat Lance in the time trial, but he lost time to Armstrong in the mountains.
Plus, isn't Beloki the leader of ONCE? This could be interesting.
|No, since the beginning...||Wayne|
Jul 15, 2002 7:56 AM
|GdG and Beloki have been co-leaders esp. since GdG was showing better form leading up to the tour.|
|Be interesting to see who the leader is||scottfree|
Jul 15, 2002 8:25 AM
|in the mountains. I would say Beloki, based on past form, would be the more likely choice. But Galdeano seems pretty jacked up on yellow. Team strife might make things interesting.|
|A question||Me Dot Org|
Jul 15, 2002 8:23 AM
|Armstrong is sitting much closer to the lead than he was going into last year's mountain stages. (He's still up on Beloki, who was 3rd last year). But there are a lot of Spanish riders who could make the first mountain stages interesting. ONCE has been very strong so far...
I haven't been following cycling as long as most on this board, so I have a question: Are team tactics less important in the mountains? It seems that if you're going for the Yellow and not a stage win, you let the breakaways go, because there is not a lot "pull" (draft) when you're going up a mountain. It would seem that, with drafting having a reduced effect, individual rider strength would count for more than team strength.
|Is he a climber?||TJeanloz|
Jul 15, 2002 8:26 AM
|Well, he's not a disaster on the climbs, but he's no slouch either.
Last year at Alpe d'Huez he was 8th, not bad, but still 4:03 behind Armstrong, which is more time than he can afford to lose.
He lost another minute at Ax-les-Thermes; and nearly 3 more at Saint-Lary-Soulan.
So, he wasn't a great climber last year. Of course, he did lose 1:24 in the only real TT last year (while beating Ullrich to finish 2nd) - so if today is an indication of his improvement over the last year, Armstrong may have something to worry about.
|Any chance LA||scottfree|
Jul 15, 2002 8:29 AM
|tanked the TT? He's big on head games. It doesn't seem likely, but he IS one cocky SOB.|
|No, he's arrogant, but not stupid...||TJeanloz|
Jul 15, 2002 8:38 AM
|You don't tank a TT. Ever. Too great a chance that it will come back and bite you in the ass. And if it does, you know you deserve it too. If there was a lesson learned from 1989, this was it.
He got beat. Fair and square. Botero is the real deal. But if he can repeat his mountain performances, it will be completely moot.
|No, he's arrogant, but not stupid...||JSchneb|
Jul 15, 2002 9:43 AM
|I agree. I think Lance lost fair & square in the TT, but if he is on form in the mountains I think that no one will be able to stay with him.
The fact that he lost today could have a big psychological impact as well (for both him, his team and the other contenders). This is his first TT loss since he started winning the Tour, and others may start to think that if LA is beatable in the TT he must also be beatable in the mountains.
In addition, the Yellow Jersey is an unbelievable motivator. IGdG may find form that he didn't realize he had with the YJ on his back! On the other hand, the pressure of trying to keep it may cause him to ride outside of his limits and crack him.
LA now has to be perfect in the mountains; he can't afford any mistakes nor can he show any signs of weakness. Now that the other teams have smelled blood...
In any case, this Tour is far from over. In all actuality, it may be the most interesting one in years!
It's funny; no one wanted to say that it was "in the bag" for Lance even though they were all thinking it. Now we just might be in for a surprise!
Jul 15, 2002 10:31 AM
|I think you reading way too much into this. First of all, Lance has most definitely lost time trials in the Tour before.
In 2001, he came in 3rd in the prologue, behind Moreau and (drumroll, please) Galdeano.
In 2000, he came in 2nd in the stage 1 ITT (not a prologue) to David Millar.
Second, if you think this will have any psychological effect on Lance, you haven't been following Lance too closely. If there is an effect, it can only be positive. You can liken it to a cornered animal striking out.
As for Botero, yes, he won. But by winning, he has basically eliminated himself as a GC threat. Because if there is one thing history shows, it's that Botero is either a great time trialist or a great climber, but he's never been able to do both. For example, just last month he won the ITT in the Dauphine Libere, then lost almost 18 minutes to Lance in one stage! Last year in the Vuelta he won the ITT, then lost almost three minutes the next day. Consistency is not his strength, and it seems his goal was to the win the time trial, not go for the GC.
Jul 15, 2002 11:36 AM
|although in fairness to Botero didn't he lose that 18 minutes the day before the TT, since he was basically taking it easy up Ventoux, saving himself for the TT. This time he's undergone the stress as Armstrong and still got the best of him. But I don't think he'll be able to climb with him, GdG is still the main threat, he's never believed before he could win the tour and that motivation can do alot for someone (just look at Kiveliv last year). ONCE should try something tactically tomorrow or early on stage 11 or they're just throwing away all those riders close to the lead who will probably be out of touch with the leaders after stage 11.|
|"ONCE should try something tactially tomorrow"||TJeanloz|
Jul 15, 2002 11:47 AM
|Yes, what rest day tactics will they employ? "GdG, no fudge bars for you, only muselei and rest, and Beloki, after yesterday's shameful performance you must stay in bed all day."
Brilliant tactics both. I hate rest days. Hopefully we'll see some good tactics on Wednesday...
|Thanks for pointing out the errors of my ways...||Wayne|
Jul 16, 2002 3:06 AM
|if that can't do anything on the rest day then yes on wednesday they should try something!|
|that's even worse||mr_spin|
Jul 15, 2002 11:50 AM
|The 18-minute loss I mentioned came two stages AFTER the ITT, theoretically plenty of time to recover. But I forgot about the 15 minutes he lost the day BEFORE!
It just adds weight to my point. Pick one or the other, but Botero can't do both.
|Well if we're going to pick performances...||Wayne|
Jul 16, 2002 3:11 AM
|how about his win in the Classiques des Alpes? I doubt he'll be able to climb everyday with the real mountain goats but I bet he's up there most days and not dropped until the final climb. Those two days in the Dauphine in no way reflect his climbing ability, to take those as indicative of his ability to climb is unfair.|
|not a good choice||mr_spin|
Jul 16, 2002 6:24 AM
|I am not knocking Botero. I think he is a great talent and one of the more interesting riders around, but Sevilla chased him down fairly easily in that race, mainly because Botero was bonking hard at the end. Plus, it was a cold, wet, miserable race, and I'm sure once Botero got away, everyone else shut down. Why risk getting someone hurt with only a few days until the Tour?
My feeling is that Botero focused on the TT for the Tour, and helping Sevilla. Therefore, I don't see him as a GC threat.
Jul 16, 2002 6:28 AM
|Paul or Phil said during the stage (Botero was sitting two seats down from them) that he stated he was going for the podium. So, I don't think you'll be seeing him sacrificing himself for Sevilla unless things go really bad on the first couple of mountain stages.|| |