|   Let's play Security Council Roulette - how will the vote go? | PdxMark
Feb 28, 2003 11:25 AM | | This is supposed to be a fun game. No politics. No philosophy... just how will the vote on a second Iraq resolution go. Here are your options:
1) There's no vote on a second resolution. With threat of a veto or loss, the second resolution is withdrawn without a vote.
2) There is a vote, but you gotta say who votes how. You need 9 votes to win - even though there are 15 Security Council members.
Here's your program. You can't play without a program. Know the players and their positions. Here's a rundown of the latest positions of all 15 Security Council members.
SUPPORTIVE (4)
United States: Washington wants a approval of a second resolution but says it will attack Iraq without one.
United Kingdom: Prime Minister Tony Blair, facing massive public opposition to war, is strongly seeking a second resolution.
Spain: Led by conservative prime minister Jose Maria Aznar, is a co-sponsor of U.S.-U.K. resolution.
Bulgaria: The former communist country is leaning toward supporting the second resolution.
UNDECIDED (8)
Russia: Moscow says war is not necessary now and reserves the right to use its veto.
China: Beijing is wary of unilateral U.S. action but is considered unlikely to use its veto.
Mexico: While the public is strongly opposed to war, the U.S.'s southern neighbor has recently indicated it is moving towards Washington's position.
Pakistan: An Islamic country that receives substantial U.S. aid, it is reluctant to support an attack on an Arab country but also reluctant to oppose the United States.
Angola: undecided.
Chile: undecided.
Guinea: undecided but has historical ties to France.
Cameroon: undecided but has historical ties to France.
OPPOSED (3)
France:: President Jacques insists that current inspections efforts are working, that war must be a last resort and that it will veto any second resolution.
Germany: The Berlin government is adamantly opposed to a second resolution and a U.S. attack.
Syria: The lone Arab country on the Security Council is opposed to a second resolution and a U.S. attack. |
| I'll pick a no vote on the resolution as most likely, because... | PdxMark
Feb 28, 2003 11:30 AM | | of the threat of a veto by Russia and a slim or no 9 vote majority. France won't veto.
Second choice: Resolution narrowly passes with US, UK, Spain, Bulgaria, Mexico, Pakistan, Angola, Chile, Cameroon. |
| Resolution withdrawn. No vote. It's a sure loser | OldEdScott
Feb 28, 2003 11:44 AM | | and Bush will just declare the SC irrelevant and go off on his own rather than suffer the humiliation of an actual vote. |
| Resolution Passes | Jon Billheimer
Feb 28, 2003 2:53 PM | | I go with Pdx's scenario. American money talks. Brace yourself American taxpayers for higher deficits to bankroll Bush's "conservative" foreign policy agenda. |
| Clarification: Pdx's 2nd scenario. nm | Jon Billheimer
Feb 28, 2003 2:56 PM | | |
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