| **Last Night's NY Winning Lottery Numbers - 911 !!!!!!** | jose_Tex_mex
*Sep 12, 2002 12:05 PM* | | Now that's just eerie...
CNN Reporting...
http://www.cnn.com/2002/US/09/12/ar911.sept11.lottery.ap/index.html
ALBANY, New York (AP) -- On the first anniversary of the terrorist attacks, a date known as 9-11, the evening numbers drawn in the New York Lottery were 9-1-1.
"The numbers were picked in the standard random fashion using all the same protocols," said lottery spokeswoman Carolyn Hapeman. "It's just the way the numbers came up."
Lottery officials won't know until Thursday morning how many people played those numbers or the total payout, she said.
For the evening numbers game, the New York Lottery selects from balls numbered zero to nine circulating in a machine at the lottery office. Three levers are pressed, and three balls are randomly brought up into tubes and then displayed. |
| **fishy** | ColnagoFE
*Sep 13, 2002 7:18 AM* | | Any mathemeticians kow what the odds were on this happening? To me this says...it's a fix, there are strange forces at work, or it's just a startling coincidence. Which one seems more plausible? I tell you the news is getting stranger and stranger these days. For instance you have one child abduction and all of a sudden it's an epidemic! Or you have one bad CEO exposed and now it's routine and the stock markets are in shambles. Almost like a self-fulfilling prophecy. |
| **Not that improbable...** | jose_Tex_mex
*Sep 13, 2002 9:30 AM* | | To get one out of ten is 1/10 and to get pick three out of ten is (1/10)*(1/10)*(1/10) or 1/10,000.
However, to get those three on a date that is the same must be astronomically difficult. I'll have to think about those odds.
As for the news, I don't think things are getting worse - we have always been this screwed up. I would say our ability to report such matters is better.
True, these events are reported in waves - but that is more like clever marketing than anything else. The public has a very short attention span. When the media has is they will keep it using the same formula. The more viewers, the more timesold in commercials...
True though, just having it in mind can cause more momentum. |
| **It's pretty improbable...** | TJeanloz
*Sep 13, 2002 10:04 AM* | | The odds of any single combination coming up, in the correct order, are 1 in 1000. The odds of it coming up on a particular day depends on how often that day occurs. If we assume that New York draws lottery numbers every weekday, that would be 261 drawings, only one of which would be on 9-11, (which assumes that they draw on holidays, which is probably not true), so the odds are 1:261,000 of a specific number coming up on a specific day.
However, compared to most lottery odds, these are really pretty decent odds, except that I believe the maximum payout is $500. |
| **Figure in the odds** | Kristin
*Sep 13, 2002 11:06 AM* | | of the numbers matching the month and day they are drawn and that date being the one year anniversary of an important event. Were the numbers drawn in that order??? Figure the odds for that as well. |
| **randomness** | DougSloan
*Sep 13, 2002 12:42 PM* | | Effectively, this is guessing a number between 000 and 999, right? The odds are 1/1000, no matter what day it is.
The date is not a random event, so I don't think you can multiply the odds of the number with the "odds" of the date. The odds are still 1/1000, every time there is a drawing.
Doug |
| **The date is random...** | TJeanloz
*Sep 14, 2002 5:00 AM* | | The date can be treated as a random variable because many dates have drawings. If, for example, the drawing were only held on September 11, the odds would be 1/1000 of drawing 9-1-1. But since many drawings are being held, it becomes, in effect, a random event. I suppose that you would have to somehow constrain the time period, and say that the odds are 1/261,000 of drawing 9-1-1 on September 11th any particular year. |
| **not convinced** | DougSloan
*Sep 14, 2002 2:10 PM* | | I still don't see it.
The flip of a coin is 50% probability for heads each time, right?
You flip once every day of the year. What are the odds of getting heads on September 11? Isn't this the same thing?
Doug |
| **not convinced** | Skip
*Sep 14, 2002 2:31 PM* | | The odds of getting heads on Sept. 11, is still 50:50. |
| **Two different problems...** | jose_Tex_mex
*Sep 14, 2002 3:52 PM* | | I think we are looking at two different problems here:
1) What's the probability of today's pick 3 and by the way it happened to be today's date.
2) What's the probability of today's pick three matching the date. This is a good one since not all combo's of numbers will have dates - such as 9-3-3.
When everyone went to the Lotto machine that day they had a 1 in 1000 shot at winning. BTW - a lot of people won. |
| **Right,** | TJeanloz
*Sep 15, 2002 8:51 AM* | | Problem number 2 is almost the right question to be asking, except what we're asking is what is the probability that today's pick three matches the date on a particular date. What you're effectively doing is introducing two new sets of balls to the equation, one for the month (numbered 1-12) and one set that includes balls numbered 0-3 for the first digit of the day, and 0-9 for the second digit (or just 31 balls, labeled 01-31). This, however, assumes (as Doug points out) that the date is a random event, which it is not- because we can't have the same date twice in a row.
Suffice to say that the odds are somewhat longer than 1:1000 of this event occuring. |
| **but wouldn't the order be another factor?** | ColnagoFE
*Sep 16, 2002 8:27 AM* | | i mean that the #s fell 9 then 1 then 1. Rather than 1 9 1. |
| **my analysis** | DougSloan
*Sep 16, 2002 8:59 AM* | | There are 1,000 possible ordered combinations that can be drawn, 000-999, right? Odds of drawing any one of them are 1/1000.
There are certain combinations that can match the date by month and day. They are 101-131, 201-228, 301-331, 401-430, 501-531, 601-630, 701-731, 801-831, 901-930. Dates from October 1 through the end of the year require 4 digits, so they don't cound.
So, the odds of the number drawn matching the date in any given (non-leap) year are (31+28+31+30+31+30+31+31+30) / 1,000 or 273/1,000=27.3 percent, much better than the odds of matching on a given day.
Still, for any given day, no matter what that date is, the odds of any particular number (000-999) being drawn is still 1/1,000. The fact that you are talking about 911(a significant event day) vs. any other date is irrelevant. It's still 1/1,000. The odds of drawing 911 on any given day is 1/1,000, even if it's January 13th.
Doug |
| **limitations of math?** | ColnagoFE
*Sep 16, 2002 10:23 AM* | | I would not argue that the odds are 1/1000...it seems that the problem is that people can't help but apply meaning--whether based in fact or not--because of the significance of the # and thus it's hard to use math alone to describe this event. Maybe it's the thought that the universe is not actually random, but something is controlling it or there is some "divine" pattern to things. |
| **might be** | DougSloan
*Sep 16, 2002 10:51 AM* | | If that's true, then all the statisticians should be replaced with psychologists, ministers, and fortune tellers :-)
Anyone ever think they "deserve" to win the lottery, maybe even asking for some divine assistance? Rationalize it by telling God you'd give to charity or help the poor? Sure.
Doug |
| **yup...supposedly in that order (nm)** | ColnagoFE
*Sep 13, 2002 1:29 PM* | | |
| **Whoops...** | jose_Tex_mex
*Sep 13, 2002 1:37 PM* | | Yeah, 10^3 is a thousand... |
| **re: Last Night's NY Winning Lottery Numbers - 911 !!!!!!** | Skip
*Sep 13, 2002 4:08 PM* | | It was all a government plot, a conspiracy. Watch the video in slow motion, you can see the air currents coming from the right of the screen, keeping all the other numbered balls richocheting off the false ceiling, allowing the "correct" balls to find their respective tubes, in order. The correct balls (9-1-1) were all directed back and to the left, back and to the left, until they found their respective tubes - whoosh. The mysterious, abherrant currents seemed to be generated from the grassy knoll area, stage left. Really, yeah, that's it. |
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