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Stocks: all sectors down except for brewers & distillers(7 posts)

Stocks: all sectors down except for brewers & distillersAllisonHayes
Jul 2, 2002 6:43 AM
I think I am going to have a drink. :)

OK, so when is the bottom and what will it be?

dow-8900; nasdaq-980 next Feb or March. Test of the bottom between now & Oct; double bottom occurs Feb, March.

What is your guess?
I'll drink to thatjose_Tex_mex
Jul 2, 2002 7:37 AM
My guess is that things could get worse and won't get better for some time. Investor confidence will continue to erode with the emergence of WorldCons, threat of terrorism, and impending War with Iraq.

One wonders how much the inflated earnings helped us surpass the 10,000 mark.
Your making me sickPaulCL
Jul 2, 2002 7:50 AM
As a stockbroker, I depend on this stuff to put food on the table and make the mortgage. I've been depressed for 2+ years.

Believe it or not, I love to hear absolute pessimism. When everyone, and I mean everyone is negative, that's the time to buy. When the small investor throws in the towel and gives up and sells it all - its' time to buy. Why?? Who knows, but its' alway right.

No predictions here. Making stock market predictions on an internet posting page is a great way to lose my license. Paul
re: Stocks: all sectors down except for brewers & distillersTJeanloz
Jul 2, 2002 8:28 AM
Bottom? What bottom?

I actually just went through a Dow valuation exercise this morning, and it's apparent that some of the Dow 30 are overvalued, but some are also undervalued. Net net, I don't think the Dow falls (much). The NASDAQ is a different story, and I think there could still be considerable downside there, potentially below 500.

The real issue that everything hinges on is how prevalent frauds like WorldCom and Xerox were. If it turns out that EVERYBODY was doing it, things could get very, very ugly. If they are determined to be isolated incidents, I think we see some nervous buying. The thing is, WorldCom was down 90%+ with its cooked numbers- the real numbers would have made the picture even worse.

Last night I was thinking that we would need a group of people- investigators of a sort- who could go into a company and certify that management was being honest. Then it occurred to me that we have those people, they're called auditors, and they haven't been doing their jobs...
sort of flat?DougSloan
Jul 2, 2002 8:36 AM
Actually, over 5 years, stocks appear to be sort of flat. A philosophical question: Is there a crash if the peak never really existed?

I compared the markets and Microsoft and Cisco (I own some Cisco, so I follow it). While Cisco jumped dramatically, over 5 years it's really not that bad, actually about the same as the markets. While remaining flat is in reality really losing money, it does all depend upon when you got in, right?
re: Stocks: all sectors down except for brewers & distillersmickey-mac
Jul 2, 2002 10:47 AM
My neighbor works for Anhaueser-Busch. Just out of curiosity, I ran AB's numbers a few weeks back. Keeping in mind market conditions over the past 2-3 years, check out this chart:
What's the surprise?....Starliner
Jul 3, 2002 3:42 PM
...people have always turned to the bottle to numb life's miseries and pains