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Since I haven't seen anyone ask...Will Lance win a 6th?(16 posts)

Since I haven't seen anyone ask...Will Lance win a 6th?Smeagol
Jul 29, 2003 6:19 AM
He was less than stellar this year compared to previous wins, but performed well when he needed to to secure the win. With all the talent coming up, does he stand a real chance of winning 6?
yes (nm)JS Haiku Shop
Jul 29, 2003 6:20 AM
No, and here's why ...Tahoe Gator
Jul 29, 2003 6:39 AM
In the past, everyone assumed Lance was invincible. Hard to motivate yourself to train if you think it's highly unlikely you can win. Next year will be different. Jan Ulrich now "believes" he can win and, given he probably didn't have the best of off seasons, could be in much better form next year; and maybe his team will spend some money on better rides (don't forget Lance benefitted from UPS win in the TTT). Tyler Hamilton will be a real threat sans a broken collarbone (his solo win proves that), especially with the team he has around him (CSC was 1st place); as will Beloki (who might have been the real threat this year had he not crashed). Vinikourov might even come back stronger. That makes it a true 4- or 5-horse race. Any one of them 1-on-1 versus Lance, you pick Lance. However, 4 on 1 makes it much more difficult than years past, this year included.
On the other hand........newridr
Jul 29, 2003 7:06 AM
All valid points and you can bet that Beloki, Ullrich, and Hamilton will be licking their chops at the thought of winning next year's race. BUT, Lance has also seen his vulnerabilities in this year's TdF and will now have that in the back of his mind as he starts training. I'm guessing that Lance and Chris Carmichael are going to have a long sit down to review and regroup in order to better prepare for the next TdF. Sometimes even champions need a close shave to reignite the competitive spirit.

I say he comes back a hard, hard man.
same old, same oldmohair_chair
Jul 29, 2003 7:20 AM
They all said the same thing this year. We'll gang up on Lance. We'll isolate him. Blah, blah, blah. They tried it, it didn't work. In his weakest year, Lance and USPS outsmarted them all.

So tell me again how it will be different next year?

The only way to beat Lance is to beat Lance. That means you, not some nebulous collection of riders and teams. You have to be able to beat him in the time trials and drop him in the mountains. It's all about taking time, not making him look bad. If you can't do that, you are racing for second place. No one seems to be able to do that right now.

The real shame this year was Beloki. He always seemed like a scrappy punk to me, the kind of guy who would kick you in the shin and then run away. (Note: I said seemed--I have no idea what he is really like.) But this year he was out there poking Lance with a stick. This year he looked like he could hurt Lance. Oh well.
Can Beloki Come Back at that Level in 12 months?jtolleson
Jul 29, 2003 8:48 AM
I don't know the details of his projected rehab, but assuming 12-16 weeks of little to no training (which seems reasonable given the severity of his injuries) can he really be in peak form in a year? As a victim of a major crash I know that the atrophy and pain slowed me down for a long time. Obviously, I didn't devote 24-7 to rehab the way the pros can but it will be a long and painful road back.

Right now, I can't see him being a force next year.
probably notmohair_chair
Jul 29, 2003 8:54 AM
I think he broke his femur, which I think is about the worst thing you can break, because it takes so long to heal. As far as his other injuries, they shouldn't keep him down for long. Floyd Landis broke his hip earlier this year and he rode the Tour.

Beloki is a top rider and this is what he does for a living. I'm sure his rehab will be more focused and intense than that of any ordinary person, if nothing else because he can endure a lot more suffering.
Not so sure about that.steve1244
Jul 29, 2003 7:31 AM
Don't discount these factors as motivators for Lance to come back stronger and smarter next year. The guy's work ethic, coupled with his toughness, meticulousness and the strength of his team, still make him the man to beat, IMHO.
No, and here's why ...russw19
Jul 29, 2003 9:40 PM
Add to this list Levi Leipheimer. He was said to be much more fit than ever before going into this tour and Rabobank is one team that, like CSC can actually field a team strong enough to challenge USPS and Lance for the win. I would expect to see him do some damage next year as he feels he needs to make up for this year to his team mates.

yes, if he wants to. nmDougSloan
Jul 29, 2003 7:15 AM
And will he ever lose one?vindicator
Jul 29, 2003 7:44 AM
Related question - will Lance ever lose a tour he starts? He's on record as wanting a sixth, and also as wanting to recognize when it's time to hang 'em up, hoping that he'll win his final tour whenever that may be.

So, regardless of how many more he wins (if any), will he ever lose one (barring something like what happened to Beloki)?

My bet is that he will. I don't see him ever believing that he can't win until he actually doesn't win.
he's already lost several nmDougSloan
Jul 29, 2003 7:47 AM
Now, you KNOW what I meant!vindicator
Jul 29, 2003 10:50 AM
There you go being all lawyerly again!
I think this says it all...DougSloan
Jul 29, 2003 7:54 AM
"The challenges Lance faced en route to his fifth Tour de France victory will have a significant effect on his preparation for the 2004 Tour. He proved he was the strongest and smartest man battling for the yellow jersey this year, but he felt the pressure that comes when you see there's a real chance you're going to lose.

"That feeling is so abhorrent to Lance Armstrong that he will approach his training for the 2004 Tour de France with a renewed sense of purpose and determination. Not only does he plan on winning a sixth Tour de France, he's planning on doing it on his terms: by being so prepared and so powerful that no one can come close to challenging him again."
True, Lance needs something to motivate him. This willhuez
Jul 29, 2003 8:34 AM
most definitely do it. The only thing I would worry about now is him changing his preparation. He seems atleast in his first 4 wins to have the timing and work load pretty well perfect.

If he goes into the offseason and early season with a new regiment, things like timing for his peak, overtraining, etc., could get screwed up.

I saw this happen to Tinker Juarez in mt biking. He got second at the worlds in 94. An awesome performance. He vowed to train his but off for 95. What happened? Well, he didnt do good. I think he overtrained....

Its hard to say. Six will be HARD. I think he can do it however if things go right. Even when hes not going 100% he is still slightly better than the rest. The TTT gave him I think 43 seconds on Jan. That was HUGE this year.

Another point to think about. Lance might be on a serious downhill swing with his strength. With Jan out last year maybe we didnt have anyone real close to compare Lance's form with to notice Lances decrease in strength......

Just my thoughts.
maybe work in a lot more cross races this winter? ;-) nmDougSloan
Jul 29, 2003 8:38 AM