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Weatherbugs, I need your help determining what time to ride.(15 posts)

Weatherbugs, I need your help determining what time to ride.Kristin
Apr 18, 2003 7:24 AM
I'm a bit of a weather bug myself and can navigate an NWS convection report with some effort; but I can't make sense of ISO maps. (i.e. I can't actually forecast anything.) Tomorrow is one of those crazy days with Tstorms expected, but there will be a definate gap between systems. The problem is I don't know when the gap will occur. Anyone have some skills at this?

I know that TWC's site has hour by hour predictions, but they aren't always accurate. I want some other sorce to back it up too.
Okay Kristin:)-Jon Billheimer
Apr 18, 2003 7:42 AM
Look outside. When they sky's blue, GO!
And then there's the non-scientific approach. nmKristin
Apr 18, 2003 7:47 AM
You know what they say about Chicago in the sprintime. If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes.
And then there's the non-scientific approach. nmJon Billheimer
Apr 18, 2003 7:53 AM
Right. That's Alberta year-round! Today, for instance, we have probability of rain, snow, and I get ready for a group ride in about half an hour:)- The trick is to wear everything you have!

However, I do remember horrendous Chicago weather. I grew up about a 100 mi. southeast. Now as an adult I endure horrendous Edmonton weather. Must be either bad karma or deeply embedded racial memories:)-
I use the weatherbug.look271
Apr 18, 2003 7:57 AM
It's predictions are pretty accurate. We have intermittant drissel today. I'm going to wait about 45 min and go out. I'm hoping the roads will dry out a tad.....
Here's what I do:sodade
Apr 18, 2003 9:15 AM
I usually loop the 1hour total rainfall radar image on the NWS. I watch the rain move through my area to figure out how fast and where it is going. I then stick a clear ruler on my screen to calculate when it is going to hit me. I live on the east coast (ick! - I miss sunny california) so I usually ride southwest from my house towards the storm (that's where they usually come from) - that way, if I see it coming, I can race back home like a scared rabbit.

That said, I bring my assos micro clima and my rear fender anytime I see rain near me.

p.s. Today, I am waiting for the UPS truck to bring my new Computrainer so I can puss out and keep up with my training...
10:32am (nm)ColnagoFE
Apr 18, 2003 9:45 AM
Funny man!Kristin
Apr 18, 2003 9:58 AM
And how did you arrive at this time?
Now is always the perfect time to ride. nm.MB1
Apr 18, 2003 10:27 AM
re: Weatherbugs, I need your help determining what time to ride.tma
Apr 18, 2003 11:55 AM
If you have a National Weather Service office reasonably close to you, use their site. Search on NOAA or NWS and see what you find. Our local one is always and I do mean always right 0-12 hours, 90% right 12-24 and a whole lot better than anybody else out to three days because they're local and have been at it a long time. Check out the text forecast discussions for the real deal. Lots of mngls abbrevs w sthnd lso jgn to mystify but you can dope it out pretty good.
Thats what I meant when I said convection reportKristin
Apr 18, 2003 12:39 PM
I primarily use the NWS site. They call them "discussions" now, but they used to be convection reports. Unfort. Brumer's (Chicago) report didn't give me an indication of when the trough would be rolling thru. I was just trying to schedule my day. Perhaps I'll email Mr. Brumer and ask him what time I should schedule my weekend outdoor activities! :-p
Weather Reports? Baaah!Jon Billheimer
Apr 18, 2003 3:38 PM
So Kristin, at the start of this a.m.'s group ride, +7 and overcast; midway, driving rain, wind, getting cold; last third, 0 deg. heavy snow and wind! Conclusion: 1000 Belgian points for those of us stupid enough to finish, plus another couple of million brain cells down the drain!:)- How was Chicago??
Beware of nesting geeseKristin
Apr 19, 2003 1:46 PM
Your ride sounds like a real buzz-kill. Bummer. Mine was great. I took my best guess and headed out at 9am. Turns out I picked the best possible time to ride. 70 degress and partly sunny. Tailwinds on the way out, not much traffic on the path. First hour was awesome. The second half? Well, I installed the new saddle with a little too much nose, and I forgot to pack my multi-tool. So I was much sore and much out of the saddle. Then, because of some strong winds, I followed the sidewalk over the I88 overpass bridge and around the bend onto my street. As the sidewalk lead me behind a stone marquee, suddenly everything was feathers and necks and beaks and honking. I startled a goose who was bedding down behind the sign. Well, that ruined any hope of a proper cool-down for me. And I doubt those eggs will hatch either. Perhaps the City of Aurora should compensate me for lowering the Canada goose population.

Its a good thing I went when I did. We've had some 50MPH+ gusts.
Watch the radar loopKerry
Apr 19, 2003 6:09 AM
If you could use the convection report (or any other data) to accurately forecast the weather, then you'd be a rich person in VERY short order. Simple fact is that weather is a highly chaotic phenomenon and prediction accuracy is only relative. If you watch the radar loops, you can often get a good idea of which way and how fast things are moving. That said, you're not going to be able to predict the time gaps too far ahead, so be flexible and accept that even when the radar looks clear, you can get wet. Converse is true as well, so you just have to go for it.
Thanks, I went for itKristin
Apr 19, 2003 1:50 PM
Had some success too. I should have mentioned that the reason I was trying to figure this all out yesterday is because I don't have internet access at home and my doppler radar broke last week.