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so, when do you think Lance's gonna loose TdF?(10 posts)

so, when do you think Lance's gonna loose TdF?cyclopathic
Feb 19, 2003 5:00 PM
not being unpatriotic or implying anything, but unless he quits he is gonna loose eventually. Eddy, Big Mig, Hinault all did..
maybe next yearwheelsucker
Feb 19, 2003 5:12 PM
Don't really think that anyone can beat him this year, but a lot of guys (especially the spaniards) are coming on strong so I would have to say that he's not going to win next year. take your pick on who will beat him, beloki, sevilla, aitor gonzalez.
Pondered this a lotteoteoteo
Feb 19, 2003 5:52 PM
I have often thought did the cancer years off and his post cancer focus on the Tour do anything to extend his career? It would be silly to think that cancer taking him out for 2 years added anything to his lifespan. I mean it more like he emerged a changed rider that focused on the TdF.

As for my guess I would say 2004 or 2005 and my top pick to knock him off is Cadel Evans--I think he's the whole package. Aitor's TT capabilities are hard to argue with. As with all the Tour greats who among the "new guard" will be the most consistent.

As for American hopes I'd like to say Floyd Landis will continue to emerge--his performance in Avenir a few years showed some things and last year Lance and Johan showed unbelievable confidence in the guy. He got the nod in the Tour over a few riders that had been on Two successive TdF champ squads. Levi is a tough call. His confidence may grew so much in himself. If he takes another leap---who knows???
Speaking of confidence Christian Vandevelde had a stellar Vuelta--he had something to prove and you have to admire how hard he worked on his weight and climbing skill.
he will have stiff competition this year you knowcyclopathic
Feb 19, 2003 7:58 PM
first Ullrich riding for new team out to prove something. Then Telecom with Evans and Salvodelli. Neither is a threat alone but 2 of them riding for strong team, hmm. On top Aitor Gonzales is in. He is not just a good overall rider, but he also has brains; he beat Bruynel in Vuelta fair and sqare. This time he will have a team riding for him. Yeah Garzelli.. is out clean and Staeco with Simoni/DiLuca. Of cause ONCE with Beloki and Kelme with Sevilla. Probably the best line up in last years.

There's a good chance race will end up blown apart and my feeling if Lance looses that's the way it's gonna happen. First USPS will be stretched thin trying to hold off 4-5 other teams attacking, then when somebody will make a move they just will look and see him going. For whatever reason I dont believe Lance has what it takes to win alone LeMond style he is attached too much to masterplan.
he will have stiff competition this year you knowGalibier
Feb 20, 2003 7:18 AM
I disagree that Lance does not have what it takes to win alone: he's the strongest climber, the fastest time trialer, and a smart pack rider. Thus, even alone he should stand a good chance of winning, unless he is mentally weak -- which he certainly does not seem to be.
LA is a good all aroundercyclopathic
Feb 20, 2003 7:36 AM
not a climber. Given go Heras would have beat him to the top for stage wins. Of cause with his TT skills Heras has no chance to win major GT the best he can manage is podium finish and/or a couple stage wins.
Sorry -- Can't AgreeGalibier
Feb 20, 2003 9:15 AM
Armstrong not a climber? I don't see how a non-climber can dominate nearly every crucial mountain stage in the Tour. I also question whether Heras, head to head, can beat Armstrong to the top of any climb. Heras is without doubt an outstanding climber, but he never put time on the peloton in the Vuelta the way Armstrong does in the Tour. Heras's performance on the Angliru was stunning yet not enough. IMO, setting aside team tactics, Heras could not have dropped Armstrong on the Angliru.
Sorry -- Can't Agreecyclopathic
Feb 20, 2003 2:06 PM
Lance told in interview that he had to ask Herras to slow down and wait. Angliru is too steep for LA to stand a chance LA would probably beat Heras on lesser grade.

With respect to Vuelta, on climbs Heras put as much time on Aitor as LA does in tour. Problem is he lost almost 5min on 2 TTs and he let him nip a few seconds here and there, most importantly 50sec in Serra Nevada.

Heras lost Vuelta because he was riding with half team (there were noone to lead him out but Chris Vande Velde who btw did a great job) and because Bruyneel made a tactical mistake not considering A. Gonzalez a threat before it was too late. There were no time in '02 Vuelta Postal would drive peloton they couldn't they didn't have manpower. Aitor was able to get away and no postie was even pretending to chase him.

Of cause Heras lost because he can't TT and it wasn't his tour there were not enough mnt top finishes. You rarely see pure climber like Pantani or Heras win GT. I guess that's why he is happy with his postie super domestique status instead being a captain of own team.
Hoping he won't - just retire after 6MrDan
Feb 19, 2003 6:33 PM
Even though LA has been criticized for concentrating on the TDF, I've gotta believe that he's starting to feel some burn-out. I'd love to see him make 6 then hang it up gracefully - I think he will do 6 to leave no questions, but the French will always find something to complain about...
no competition? That would be an empty win. nmSpunout
Feb 20, 2003 6:30 AM