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Place your bets ladies and gentlemen...(20 posts)

Place your bets ladies and gentlemen...AllisonHayes
Jun 21, 2002 9:45 AM
TDF 2002

Win?
Place?
Show?

and odds of winning...
Are you kiddinggrandemamou
Jun 21, 2002 9:54 AM
after the Giro doping debacle no way I'd put money on it, but for S & Giggles.

1.Armstrong
2.Leipheimer
3.Beloki (again)
my picksTypeOne
Jun 21, 2002 10:12 AM
I'm not much of a prognisticator (Nets in 6 in the NBA Finals) but here goes:

1. Armstrong
2. Gonzalez-Galdeno (horribly misspelled)
3. Beloki
Leipheimer?Wayne
Jun 21, 2002 10:16 AM
I know Hamilton did it in the Giro with no indication of form before hand, but what's happened to Leipheimer? Every result I've seen from him this year he's been way off the pace and I haven't seen his name in any of the big pre-tour races.

1. Armstrong (1 to 100 odds)
2. ONCE rider (any one of about 4, but if I have to I'd say I. Gonzalez Galdeano) (50 to 1 odds)
3. Sevilla (100 to 1 odds)

Maybe Moreau but he went home crying last year when the press criticized him, not that Beloki or I.G.G. haven't shown their own moments of psychological weakness.
Cooke will take the yellow jersey in the first week.
re: Place your bets ladies and gentlemen...firstrax
Jun 21, 2002 10:13 AM
I'm going to go out on a limb and say Hamilton gets a podium spot. Or at least a stage win.
I forgot, any darkhorses to win? nmAllisonHayes
Jun 21, 2002 10:26 AM
Only if Armstrong Crashes out but...Wayne
Jun 21, 2002 10:31 AM
then again I don't see anybody else winning unless something beyond bad legs happens to Armstrong. Or maybe the Spanish teams somehow tactically isolate Armstrong, between ONCE, Kelme and Banesto they certainly have the mountain men but it's so hard to pull off and Heras looks like he's in top form this year.
I forgot, the darkhorses...Wayne
Jun 21, 2002 11:43 AM
none unless Armstrong crashes out but some dark horse who might make the podium:
Unai Osa
Hamar Zebeldia
Sandy Casar
Mancebo
I'll be the contrarian.Len J
Jun 21, 2002 10:29 AM
1.) Galdeano
2.) Beloki
3.) Sevilla

Armstrong wrecks in the first week on a rainy stage & has to withdrawl (Luck runs out). Hamilton can't get back to form in time for the tour.

Len
You believe Lance's previous victories were luck?mtnpat
Jun 21, 2002 11:26 AM
splain please? I mean the guy stops for people (couchulrich) and still wins.
No however..........Len J
Jun 21, 2002 11:33 AM
he had no "bad luck" in any of his victories. I think he is a very talented, hard-working cyclist. However, any tour win relies on a certain amout of luck even if it's only in the form of no "bad luck". Imagine if he blew a tire on a descent, or flatted twice on Alpe DuEz, How hurt would he have been or How much time would he have lost to Ulrich? What about a rider going down in front of him & he breaks his clavicle?

In a three week bike race, luck does matter, Remember Casagrande in the Giro last year?

Len
make your own luckmr_spin
Jun 21, 2002 11:43 AM
Lance is very smart in that he rides at the front of the race all the time. This keeps him out of crashes. There is almost always a teammate on his wheel should he get a flat. Plus, as the "patron" of the Tour, the top contenders would probably wait for him if he were to crash or get a flat.

Casagrande in the Giro made the same mistake as Zulle and others did on the causeway in the 1999 TDF. In both cases the obstacles were known and the danger was clear. The smart riders got to the front and avoided the mess. The not so smart ones paid the price.
Agree to a point, however.......Len J
Jun 21, 2002 11:53 AM
there are still situitations that can occur.

What about a crash in a bunch sprint, How does he avoid that?

What about a blowout on a descent?

What about a flat going up the final climb, no teamates then?

As far as contenders waiting, tell that to Beloki, he sure wasn't waiting for Ulrich last year, if Ulrich doesn't have Livingston, he may have ended up third.

I'm just saying that "S33t" does happen, it only taked one second of attention lapse or plain bad luck to end up out. While you can "Make your own luck" to some extent, the cycling Gods can strike at any time.

Len
I hear what your sayin' thx (nm)mtnpat
Jun 21, 2002 11:49 AM
.
re: Place your bets ladies and gentlemen...JamieB
Jun 21, 2002 11:04 AM
My husband and I were just talking about placing bets this morning. We haven't decided on the prizes, but here are my podium guesses (I haven't figured out polka dot, green, white jerseys yet):

Win: Hamilton
Place: Armstrong (I figure he'll either crash or get held back strategically)
Show: Leipheimer (spelling??)

I'm hoping for an all-American podium. Won't happen, but I can hope!! :)
yeah but you can dream, right?lonefrontranger
Jun 21, 2002 1:39 PM
and wouldn't that just torque the French off to no end?!
He's backmr_spin
Jun 21, 2002 11:13 AM
I hate Virenque, but he's back with a vengeance. He made the podium before, and he'll make it again this year. Climbers will take it in the last week.

Armstrong
Virenque
Kivilev

Kivilev is the risky choice here. He is riding well right now, and hopefully will be suitably inspired by his 4th place last year. The whole team will be behind him as well.
My picksJon Billheimer
Jun 21, 2002 11:40 AM
This is interesting, since most commentators have been treating this year's Tour as another Armstrong coronation before the race has even started. I like Len's contrarian point of view, but barring mishap, my money's on:

Armstrong
de Galdeano
Beloki,

with Kivilev and Hamilton as possible podium dark horses.
No, Millar will be riding for himself, at least...Wayne
Jun 21, 2002 11:41 AM
and neither Kivilev or Virenque can time trial better than your local cat. 1. Gotta go with the guys who can time trial and climb:
Moreau
Beloki
I. Gonzalez Galdeano

Remember Virenque made the podium when he was doped to the max, he might get the polka dot jersey again but then again that has become a strategic undertaking recently and has little to do with being the best climber in the race like it use to.
just hopeing its close, I want Hamilton, hes got perseverance nmishmael
Jun 21, 2002 1:32 PM