|Don't count Ullrich/Telekom out||DAS|
Jul 19, 2001 8:52 AM
|I know Lance hammers. I root for him, too. Yes, it was amazing what he did to the field on Stage 10 and Stage 11. Yes, the Tour is won in the mountains. Yes, Lance is in prime shape and is crushing the field. |
But, don't think Ullrich is done for the count. He's got game. Consider this:
-He's in better shape now than when he won back in '98
-He's placed 2nd to Lance on Stage 10 and 11
-He's dropping burly climbers like Beloki and Heras.
-Just because his climbing style looks painful (sitting, low cadence) doesn't mean he's out, he's still hammering
-He beat Lance at the Olympics
-He has trained correctly for this year's Tour.
-He's won the Tour before, he knows how to do it again
-Telekcom is strong. USPS is not so strong as they could be?
-Jan is only lost a couple minutes on Stage 10 and 11
-There are lots of stages left.
'Ullrich only has one problem, his name is Lance Armstrong.'
Don't get me wrong, I hope Lance three-peats and I think he can. He has an overwealming psychological advantage. Everyone in the Pelaton sees him as untouchable because he wins with conviction and he doesn't even look tired. But, the Tour has lots of challenges...weather, health, ability to recover, team strength, crashes...anything can happen.
My point is that Ullrich is the real deal and he is a real threat. It's not viable to count him out.
|I don't think anyone counts him out, but >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.||Live Steam|
Jul 19, 2001 8:58 AM
|all of the events that you mentioned that could derail LA can also do the same to Jannie and he is already at a disadvantage. I just get the sense that Jannie isn't yet mature enough. Sort of how LA was prior to his cancer. He willsoon dominate, maybe! I think he needs adifferent approach to his training and commitment.|
|Are you saying that LA may fear Jannie?>>>>>>>>>>>||Live Steam|
Jul 19, 2001 9:11 AM
|Ich bin Chrome Dinette! (NM)||MrCelloBoy|
Jul 19, 2001 9:46 AM
|Ich bin ein cyclist ein großes als das mächtige Armstrong!||Live Steam|
Jul 19, 2001 10:07 AM
|Ya! Es ist zutreffend!|
|Ich bin ein Springfield Fleamarket patron! (nm)||Diamond Joe Quimby|
Jul 19, 2001 10:17 AM
|Ich bin eating too many Jelly donuts nm||rollo tommassi|
Jul 19, 2001 11:29 AM
|A couple of counter-points||CRM|
Jul 19, 2001 10:26 AM
|- Ullrich won in '97, not '98 (Pantani).
- Placing 2nd to Lance in stages 10 and 11 only proves that he cannot match Lance in the mountains.
- Heras is riding as a domestique for Lance and can't be expected to keep up with Ullrich, whose team is riding for him.
- Ullrich didn't exactly "drop" Beloki, but he did manage to stay in front of him . . . and behind Lance.
- Winning the one-day road race at the Olympics has no bearing on winning the Tour de France. That's like saying that because the Tampa Bay Devil Rays beat the Yankees one game in June, they'll win the World Series.
I'm not saying Ullrich should be counted out. There's too much racing left and, of course, anything can happen. But barring some unforseen development, I think Lance has demonstrated that he is once again stronger and craftier than Ullrich and he should go on to win his third straight Tour.
|Ullrich's Only Hope...||Jon Billheimer|
Jul 19, 2001 12:20 PM
|Is if Telekom, Once, Kelme, et al team up and systematically attack USPS and try to isolate Lance. Without concerted team co-operation nobody's going to crack him, and probably not even then. On the other hand, Lance needs his team to get healthy to provide some support. Winning the TdF all by himself may be too big a challenge even for Super-Lance. Hopefully Tyler Hamilton will start feeling better so there's some backup for Rubiera and Heras, and Ekimov and Hincapie can save themselves a bit for the final week.|
|The problem with that....||Niwot|
Jul 19, 2001 8:39 PM
|is that a concerted attack strategy by Telekom, ONCE, Festina, actually *helps* Armstrong, as long as LA can just stay with them. The attacks will easily crush Simon and Kivilev and hasten Armstrong's acquisition of the Maillot Jaune. LA is already ahead of everyone else. He can win the Tour just by staying on Ullrich's wheel in every mtn. stage.
The other problem with your scenario is that Ullrich/Telekom are the only ones other than Armstrong/USPS who are actually trying to win the GC. Everyone else thinks they have no hope against LA, and they are just hoping to get on the podium or maybe edge out Ullrich for 2nd if Ullrich has a bad day. Those teams won't even try to attack LA because they've already given up.
|it's far from over||Hank|
Jul 19, 2001 5:48 PM
|Telekon seems stronger than Postal right now and anything can happen. It's the Tour.|
|The fat lady is picking her song||spookyload|
Jul 19, 2001 11:04 PM
|The first problem Jan faces was obvious to me on OLN's highlights show. Telekom has been supporting every finish thus far for Zabel. Every stage the boys in pink were at the front chasing breaks. Do they want to win the green jersey or the big enchillada? I think that will take a toll eventually.
Lance didn't beat Ulrich in the Olympics true, but there was a little problem with Lance's radio. It is sad that technology plays that big of a role today, but his poor situational awareness of where Jan was led to his defeat. No excuse for not paying attention to where your chief rival is radio or not.
What someone said earlier is true too. Lance just needs to hang with Jan. He is already ahead of him, so don't lose time, and the other two ahead of him will falter through attrition. Simoni himself said today that keeping the yellow jersey was "a mission impossible" to a reporter. It is a two man race for the win. Just like last year, Ulrich will tire like Zulle did. Which by the way would have made for an awesome race if he was here(thanks for that gift Le Claire).
I personally feel Ulrich has had to train too hard early to gain his fitness. He likes his schnitzel in the off season too much, and it takes a toll on his body riding the weight loss roller coaster.